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Big and Bulky Last-Mile Delivery Slowdown

  • Kelsea Ansfield
  • Jun 4
  • 6 min read


At Gain Consulting, we are dedicated to helping U.S. shippers adapt to the dynamic logistics landscape with data-driven insights and tailored solutions. A recent report from DC Velocity on June 3, 2025, citing Armstrong & Associates, Inc. (A&A), highlights a significant slowdown in the U.S. big and bulky last-mile delivery sector. After robust growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4% from 2017 to 2024, the sector saw reduced consumer spending in 2024, leading to a projected CAGR of just 7.2% from 2024 to 2026. This blog post explores the causes of this slowdown, its implications for U.S. shippers, and actionable strategies to optimize big and bulky delivery operations in 2025.


Understanding the Big and Bulky Delivery Slowdown

The big and bulky last-mile delivery sector, which includes oversized items like furniture, appliances, fitness equipment, and large electronics, has been a critical component of e-commerce growth. However, the A&A report underscores a shift in market dynamics:

  • Historical Growth (2017–2024): From 2017 to 2024, the sector grew at a robust 11.4% CAGR, fueled by a surge in e-commerce, increased consumer demand for home furnishings during the pandemic, and the rise of direct-to-consumer (DTC) models. Retailers like Wayfair, Amazon, and Home Depot expanded their big and bulky offerings, driving demand for specialized last-mile services.

  • 2024 Slowdown: In 2024, a decrease in consumer spending dampened growth, as inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, and economic uncertainty reduced purchases of high-ticket items. This led to lower shipment volumes for big and bulky goods, impacting carriers and logistics providers.

  • Future Outlook (2024–2026): A&A projects a more modest 7.2% CAGR through 2026, reflecting cautious consumer behavior and slower recovery in discretionary spending. While e-commerce remains a growth driver, the sector faces challenges from rising operational costs and competition.

Key Takeaway: The big and bulky last-mile delivery sector’s growth has slowed from 11.4% to a projected 7.2% CAGR due to reduced consumer spending, creating a more challenging environment for shippers and carriers in 2025.


Contextual Factors Driving the Slowdown

Several macroeconomic and industry-specific factors contribute to the reduced growth in big and bulky last-mile delivery, as informed by the A&A report and broader market trends:

  1. Economic Pressures: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported slower personal consumption expenditure growth in 2024, particularly for durable goods like furniture and appliances. High inflation and interest rates have curbed consumer appetite for big-ticket purchases, directly impacting big and bulky delivery volumes.

  2. Operational Cost Increases: Big and bulky delivery is labor- and fuel-intensive, with costs rising due to driver shortages and volatile diesel prices. Despite a 8.5% year-over-year diesel price drop to $3.50 per gallon in May 2025 (per BTS data), carriers face higher wages and equipment costs, squeezing margins.

  3. Consumer Behavior Shifts: The FedEx 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report notes that consumers prioritize affordability and convenience, with 76% expecting free shipping. However, big and bulky items often incur high delivery fees, deterring purchases and pushing shoppers toward in-store options.

  4. Competitive Landscape: Major players like Amazon, J.B. Hunt, and XPO Logistics dominate big and bulky delivery, leveraging scale and technology. Smaller carriers struggle to compete, limiting capacity and service options for shippers, as noted in Supply Chain Dive.

  5. Supply Chain Constraints: Port congestion and inventory imbalances, highlighted in BTS’s Port Performance Freight Statistics Program: 2025 Annual Report, have disrupted the flow of big and bulky goods, particularly imports. This has led to delays and higher costs for shippers reliant on global supply chains.

Key Takeaway: The slowdown is driven by economic pressures, rising operational costs, shifting consumer preferences, intense competition, and supply chain disruptions, requiring shippers to adapt strategically.


Implications for U.S. Shippers

The reduced growth rate in big and bulky last-mile delivery has significant implications for U.S. shippers, particularly those in e-commerce, retail, and manufacturing:

  1. Higher Delivery Costs: The 7.2% CAGR reflects slower volume growth, which may lead carriers to raise rates to offset rising labor and fuel costs. Shippers face increased per-shipment expenses, especially for white-glove services like in-home delivery or assembly.

  2. Capacity Constraints: With fewer carriers able to handle big and bulky freight profitably, shippers may encounter capacity tightness, particularly during peak seasons like Q4 2025. This could delay deliveries and impact customer satisfaction.

  3. Customer Expectations: Consumers expect seamless delivery experiences, with 68% demanding real-time tracking (per FedEx). Shippers must invest in technology to meet these expectations despite slower industry growth, adding to operational costs.

  4. E-Commerce Challenges: Big and bulky items are critical to e-commerce, but reduced consumer spending may force retailers to offer discounts, reducing profitability. Shippers must balance competitive pricing with delivery cost management.

  5. Supply Chain Risks: Import delays and inventory mismatches due to port congestion increase lead times for big and bulky goods, requiring shippers to hold more stock or diversify sourcing to mitigate disruptions.

Key Takeaway: Shippers face higher costs, capacity constraints, elevated customer expectations, e-commerce pressures, and supply chain risks, necessitating proactive strategies to remain competitive.


Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Shippers

To navigate the slowdown in big and bulky last-mile delivery and optimize operations in 2025, Gain Consulting recommends the following strategies:

  1. Optimize Delivery Networks: Analyze shipment data to consolidate deliveries and reduce per-unit costs. Use a Transportation Management System (TMS) like FreightSideKick to optimize routes and partner with carriers like XPO Logistics or J.B. Hunt for efficient big and bulky services.

  2. Negotiate Carrier Contracts: Leverage the 8.5% diesel price drop (BTS, May 2025) to negotiate lower fuel surcharges and volume-based discounts. Include clauses for white-glove services to control costs, using platforms like TransImpact for rate benchmarking.

  3. Enhance Customer Transparency: Invest in real-time tracking and communication tools to meet consumer demands for visibility. Integrate with platforms like Shopify or BigCommerce to provide delivery updates, improving satisfaction despite slower growth.

  4. Diversify Carrier Portfolio: Balance reliance on national carriers with regional providers like Southeastern Freight Lines or Estes to secure capacity and competitive rates. Use Freightos to compare options and mitigate peak-season constraints.

  5. Streamline Inventory Management: Address supply chain disruptions by diversifying sourcing and maintaining safety stock. Use analytics tools like DAT One to monitor port performance and adjust import schedules, reducing delays for big and bulky goods.

  6. Offer Flexible Delivery Options: Provide customers with cost-effective delivery choices, such as curbside drop-off instead of white-glove, to offset high fees. Promote free or subsidized shipping for high-value orders to maintain sales momentum.

  7. Leverage Technology for Efficiency: Adopt automation and AI-driven tools to optimize last-mile operations. For example, route optimization software can reduce fuel consumption, while predictive analytics can forecast demand for big and bulky items.

  8. Prepare for Peak Season: Secure capacity early for Q4 2025, anticipating e-commerce surges. Negotiate priority access with carriers and use historical data to forecast demand, ensuring timely deliveries during high-demand periods.

Key Takeaway: Shippers can mitigate the slowdown by optimizing networks, negotiating contracts, enhancing transparency, diversifying carriers, streamlining inventory, offering flexible delivery, leveraging technology, and preparing for peak season.


How Gain Consulting Can Help

Gain Consulting is your trusted partner in navigating the challenges of big and bulky last-mile delivery in 2025. Our tailored solutions empower U.S. shippers to thrive in a slower-growth environment:

  • Network Optimization: Design cost-efficient delivery networks using TMS and analytics to reduce per-shipment costs.

  • Contract Negotiation: Secure competitive rates and surcharge protections with data-driven carrier negotiations.

  • Technology Integration: Deploy tracking, automation, and AI tools to enhance visibility and operational efficiency.

  • Carrier Diversification: Build a balanced carrier portfolio to ensure capacity and cost advantages.

  • Supply Chain Resilience: Develop strategies to mitigate port delays and inventory disruptions.

  • Customer Experience Enhancement: Implement solutions to meet consumer expectations for transparency and flexibility.

The slowdown in big and bulky last-mile delivery, with a projected 7.2% CAGR through 2026, underscores the need for strategic adaptation. By partnering with Gain Consulting, U.S. shippers can turn these challenges into opportunities for efficiency and growth. Contact Gain Consulting today to build a resilient, cost-effective supply chain that excels in 2025’s evolving market.


Sources: DC Velocity, “Growth rate slows for big and bulky last-mile delivery,” June 3, 2025; Armstrong & Associates, U.S. Big and Bulky Last-Mile Delivery Market Slows in 2024; Modest Growth Expected Through 2026; Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Motor Fuel Prices, June 3, 2025; FedEx 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report, February 18, 2025; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures, 2024; Supply Chain Dive, 2025 Logistics Outlook; Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Port Performance Freight Statistics Program: 2025 Annual Report.

 
 
 

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