September Truck Tonnage Slips: ATA Index Down 0.9%, Signaling Choppy Freight Recovery

The freight market showed signs of fatigue in September, with the American Trucking Associations (ATA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index declining 0.9% to 114.2 from August's 115.3—the best month since 2023. Despite the sequential drop, the index rose 0.8% year-over-year, and year-to-date tonnage remains up 0.2%. Not seasonally adjusted, volumes fell 2.6% to 114.7.

At Gain Consulting, we analyze these fluctuations to guide shippers and 3PLs toward resilient strategies amid a bifurcated economy. While volumes remain "choppy" (up 2.1% from January's low but 3.9% below three-year highs), broader indicators like port slowdowns and flat contract rates underscore the need for proactive planning. This report breaks down the data, expert insights, and actionable steps for navigating Q4 volatility.

ATA Tonnage Index: A Closer Look

The ATA index, which tracks for-hire carriers handling ~90% of U.S. freight, highlights persistent unevenness:

Metric	September 2025	August 2025	Year-over-Year	Year-to-Date
Seasonally Adjusted Index	114.2	115.3	+0.8%	+0.2%
Not Seasonally Adjusted	114.7	117.8	-2.6%	N/A

"Tonnage levels remain choppy, but they are up 2.1% since hitting a low in January," said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. "Compared to the high three years earlier, however, truck tonnage is still off by 3.9%. In fact, September's tonnage level was essentially the same as in September 2023, underscoring the tough freight market over the last few years."

This stagnation aligns with broader trends: flat industrial activity and cautious consumer spending amid high interest rates.

Broader Market Indicators: Mixed Signals

Supporting data from related indices paints a picture of moderating demand:

• Cass Freight Index: September shipments fell 5.4% year-over-year to 1.04 (from 1.1), reflecting softer e-commerce and retail flows.

• Logistics Managers' Index (LMI): Dropped to 57.4 from August's 59.3—the lowest since March. Submetrics like transportation capacity (58.1) and pricing (60.2) showed slowing growth.

• DAT Truckload Volume Index:

  • Dry Van: 234 (-2% YoY)

  • Refrigerated: 184 (+2% YoY)

  • Flatbed: 307 (+9% YoY)

• Port Volumes: Despite a record Q3, September saw declines—Port of Los Angeles (-7.5% to 883,053 TEUs), Long Beach (-3.9% to 797,537 TEUs), Oakland (-6.6% to 178,942 TEUs). Tariff deadlines drove earlier surges, but front-running has eased.

Rajeev Dhawan, director of Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center, attributes this to a "bifurcated economy": Upper-income asset holders thrive (strong stock market, business travel), while lower-income paycheck-to-paycheck consumers economize (weaker Social Security tax collections, hiring/hours). "We didn't get to see the retail sales or employment report for September because of the government shutdown," Dhawan noted, delaying full consumption data until late October.

Ken Adamo, DAT's chief of analytics, described September as "lackluster" due to Labor Day timing and pre-Q4 slowdowns. "The month built week by week... but volume was lower than expected due to interest rates and consumer confidence."

Rate Movements: Stability with Modest Gains

Despite volume dips, rates held firm—typical for September's seasonal lull:

Equipment Type	Spot Rate (Sept vs. Aug)	Spot Rate (Sept YoY)	Contract Rate (Sept)
Dry Van	+2¢ to $2.05/mile	Stable	$2.42/mile (unchanged)
Refrigerated	+3¢ to $2.44/mile	Stable	$2.76/mile (+2¢)
Flatbed	+1¢ to $2.50/mile	Stable	$3.06/mile (-2¢)

Adamo observed: "At this point, you've got to believe that rates have bottomed out... The really big question is when will we start to see them go back up?" Contract rates show "almost two years of no movement," surprising even experts.

Why Tonnage Matters for Shippers

Choppy volumes signal uncertainty: Flatbed's +9% growth hints at construction/industrial resilience, while dry van's -2% reflects retail caution. Ports' seesaw pattern (tariff-driven surges) suggests inventory destocking ahead. For Q4, expect holiday ramps but watch for election-year volatility and potential government data delays.

Gain Consulting's Strategies for Freight Resilience

In this uneven market, Gain Consulting helps clients optimize:

1. Volume Forecasting: Use ATA/Cass data to model 2-5% Q4 growth; diversify modes (e.g., rail for flatbed surges).

2. Rate Hedging: Lock contract rates now (e.g., 6-12 months) before spot upticks; benchmark vs. DAT indices.

3. Lane Optimization: Shift to growing segments (refrigerated +2%); consolidate via 3PL partnerships (88% of shippers report cost reductions per 2025 3PL Study).

4. Port Mitigation: Buffer imports with domestic sourcing; track tariff deadlines for front-running opportunities.

5. Economic Monitoring: Track bifurcated trends—focus on lower-income consumer signals for retail freight.

Outlook: Steady Recovery with Headwinds

September's slip underscores a freight market in gradual rebound mode—up from January lows but stuck near 2023 levels. With Q4 retail looming, Costello's "choppy" assessment rings true. Dhawan's bifurcated economy and Adamo's rate-bottom call suggest stability, but external factors (shutdowns, tariffs) loom.

For tailored strategies, contact Gain Consulting: Schedule Consultation. Stay tuned for October data and our TSI/ODFL GRI updates.

Sources: American Trucking Associations (Oct 21, 2025), Transport Topics, DAT Freight & Analytics, Cass Information Systems