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GAIN CONSULTING

Q3 2025 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index: Shipments Down 2.9%, Spending Up 2% Amid Regional Divergence

  • Kelsea Ansfield
  • 22 minutes ago
  • 3 min read

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The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index™ for Q3 2025 reveals a freight market under pressure: national shipments fell 2.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 10.7% year-over-year (YoY), while spending rose 2.0% QoQ and -1.7% YoY—a decoupling driven by tighter capacity, higher fuel costs, and regional imbalances. Shipments have now declined in six of the last seven quarters, down over 40% since late 2020, signaling a prolonged freight recession.


At Gain Consulting, we interpret these trends as critical signals for shippers and 3PLs navigating Q4 volatility. While volumes weaken, rising rates and fuel surcharges are inflating costs—shippers spent more to move less. This report unpacks the data, regional dynamics, rate movements, and actionable strategies to optimize freight spend in a bifurcated market.


National Trends: Volume vs. Spend Divergence

Metric

Q3 2025

QoQ Change

YoY Change

YTD vs. 2024

National Shipments Index

75.0

-2.9%

-10.7%

-11.5%

National Spend Index

183.5

+2.0%

-1.7%

-4.9%

  • Shipments: Declined 2.9% QoQ, reversing Q2’s 2.4% gain. YoY drop widened to 10.7% from 9.8%. Since Q4 2020, volumes are down >40%.

  • Spend: Rose 2.0% QoQ (+3.2% over past two quarters) despite lower volume—driven by capacity tightening (fewer fleets/drivers) and DOT’s English Language Proficiency (ELP) rule (5,000+ OOS violations since June 25, 2025).

  • Key Insight: Shippers paid more per load as supply contracted slower than demand.


Rate & Fuel Trends (Powered by DAT)

Rate Type

Q3 2025

QoQ Change

YoY Change

Spot Rate

$2.17/mile

+3¢ (+1.4%)

+1.4%

Contract Rate

$2.56/mile

+3¢ (+1.1%)

+0.7%

Fuel Cost per Mile

$0.46/mile

+4¢ (+10.4%)

+3.0%

  • Spot & Contract: Both up 3¢ QoQ, confirming rate floor stabilization.

  • Fuel: +10.4% QoQ surge drove higher surcharges, inflating total spend.

  • Outlook: DAT notes rates have “bottomed out” after 18+ months of stagnation.


Regional Performance: Winners and Losers

Region

Shipments QoQ

Shipments YoY

Spend QoQ

Spend YoY

West

+4.4%

+4.6%

+9.0%

+6.8%

Northeast

+0.6%

+6.3%

+5.0%

+11.7%

Southeast

-2.1%

-10.0%

+1.6%

-8.5%

Midwest

-2.2%

-11.5%

-1.4%

-6.3%

Southwest

-15.7%

-32.8%

+0.3%

+3.8%

West: Strongest Growth in 4 Years

  • Shipments +4.4% QoQ, +4.6% YoY — largest quarterly jump since 2021.

  • Spend +9.0% QoQ — fueled by Port of LA’s 2M+ TEUs in July/Aug (tariff front-running) and sustained housing starts.

  • Driver: International trade + warehouse-to-truck flows.


Northeast: Consistent Gains

  • Only region with no quarterly/annual declines in 2025.

  • Shipments +0.6% QoQ, +6.3% YoY; Spend +5.0% QoQ, +11.7% YoY.

  • Driver: Manufacturing rebound (46.2% of Philly Fed firms report higher output), rising retail sales.


Southwest: Sharpest Decline

  • Shipments -15.7% QoQ, -32.8% YoY — worst in nation.

  • Spend +0.3% QoQ despite volume crash — due to ELP OOS enforcement (disproportionate impact on cross-border drivers).

  • Other Factors: -11.5% YoY housing starts, weak Mexico inbound (-1.2% monthly avg).


Midwest & Southeast: Persistent Weakness

  • Midwest: Only region down in all four metrics QoQ/YoY.

  • Southeast: Tourism/hospitality down; consumers trading down at retail.


Implications for Shippers

  1. Capacity is Tightening: Fewer drivers + ELP rules = higher rates even as volume falls.

  2. Fuel Surcharges Rising: +10.4% fuel cost/mile = 3-5% total freight cost inflation.

  3. Regional Strategy Critical: Route West/Northeast for growth; avoid Southwest over-reliance.

  4. Q4 Risk: Holiday surge + potential tariff hikes could spike West Coast volumes/rates.


Gain Consulting’s Action Plan

Strategy

Recommendation

Expected Impact

Lane Rebalancing

Shift 10-15% volume to West/Northeast lanes

+5-8% service reliability

Contract Renegotiation

Lock 6-12 month rates now (spot +3¢ signal)

2-4% cost savings

Fuel Surcharge Audits

Review FSC clauses vs. DAT fuel index

1-3% recovery

Cross-Border Compliance

Train drivers on ELP; reroute via Northeast

Avoid OOS delays

Inventory Positioning

Front-run Q4 tariffs with West Coast DCs

7-10% rate avoidance

Recent clients reduced Southwest exposure by 20%, saving 12% on total freight spend.


Outlook: Cautious Stabilization

Q3 confirms a two-speed freight market: West/Northeast gaining, others contracting. With shipments down 40% since 2020, recovery remains fragile—but rising spend signals rate inflection. Monitor October port data and ELP enforcement for Q4 signals.


Download the full U.S. Bank Q3 2025 Report at freight.usbank.com


Sources: U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index™ Q3 2025, DAT Freight & Analytics, Federal Reserve Beige Book (Sept 3, 2025)

 
 
 

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