What August's LTL Tonnage Numbers Are Telling Shippers

Every month, the major less-than-truckload carriers report a handful of numbers — tonnage, shipment counts, revenue per shipment — that most shippers never think twice about. But if you're moving freight regularly, these numbers are worth a closer look. They tell you where capacity is tightening, where carriers are gaining pricing power, and where you might have leverage (or might be about to lose it).

August's reports from Saia, XPO, and Old Dominion give us a pretty good snapshot of where the LTL market stands heading into the fall, and there's a clear divergence between the three carriers worth unpacking.

The Numbers

Carrier	Y/Y Tonnage Growth	Daily Shipments	Weight per Shipment	Notes
Saia	+8.7%	+1.1%	+7.5%	Growth accelerated from July on easier prior-year comparisons
XPO	+3.7%	+5.7%	-1.8%	On pace with Q3 guidance for mid-single-digit tonnage growth
Old Dominion	Slightly negative	—	—	Daily revenue up 12.4% y/y, an acceleration from July's 8.2%

Saia: Growth Driven by Both Expansion and Easier Comps

Saia posted an 8.7% year-over-year tonnage increase in August, with daily shipments up 1.1% and weight per shipment climbing 7.5%. That's a step up from July's growth rate, though part of the improvement is simply a function of easier comparisons against last year.

What's harder to dismiss as a comp effect is Saia's network expansion. The company has opened, expanded, or relocated around 60 terminals since 2022, pushing its total door count up 25% and effectively turning it into a national carrier rather than a regional one. That kind of footprint growth tends to show up in the tonnage numbers for a while, since new terminals bring new lanes and new customers online.

XPO: Steady, On-Plan Growth

XPO's August performance was more measured but arguably more telling from a guidance standpoint. The carrier reported 3.7% year-over-year tonnage growth, driven by a 5.7% increase in daily shipments that was partially offset by a 1.8% decline in weight per shipment. In plain terms: XPO is moving more shipments, but each one is a bit lighter on average.

That mix keeps XPO on track for its third-quarter guidance of mid-single-digit tonnage growth — not a blowout number, but a consistent one, and consistency is often what shippers actually want from a core carrier.

Old Dominion: Yield Over Volume

Old Dominion's month was a mixed bag. Tonnage stayed slightly negative, but yield told a different story — daily revenue rose 12.4% year-over-year, up from 8.2% growth in July. That's a meaningful acceleration, and it suggests Old Dominion is prioritizing rate and revenue quality over chasing volume right now.

Fuel is part of that equation. Diesel prices were up 46% year-over-year in August, compared with a 31% increase in July, and rose another 10% sequentially. When fuel costs climb that fast, carriers lean harder on fuel surcharges and base rate increases to protect margin — which shows up in revenue growth even when tonnage doesn't move.

What This Means for Shippers

Put together, these three reports paint a picture of an LTL market where capacity discipline and pricing power still favor the carriers, even as growth rates vary. A few takeaways worth keeping in mind:

• Carrier performance is diverging. Saia is growing through both market conditions and network expansion, XPO is executing steadily to plan, and Old Dominion is prioritizing yield. That means your best-fit carrier this quarter may not be the same one it was last quarter — worth revisiting your carrier mix rather than assuming the status quo still holds.

• Rising fuel costs are pushing rates up across the board, regardless of tonnage trends. If you haven't reviewed your fuel surcharge schedules recently, now's a good time.

• Network expansion changes lane-level competitiveness. Saia's terminal growth means it may now be a viable option on lanes where it wasn't before — which could open up new negotiating leverage if you haven't shopped that carrier in a while.

How Gain Consulting Can Help

Tracking monthly carrier reports is useful, but turning that information into actual savings on your freight bill is a different job entirely — one that requires knowing your specific shipment profile, lane mix, and current contracts inside and out. That's where we come in.

Gain Consulting helps businesses audit their current freight spend, benchmark their rates against what carriers are actually offering in today's market, and identify where a shift in carrier mix, mode, or contract terms could meaningfully lower costs.

If LTL makes up a meaningful part of your shipping profile, a quick, no-cost review could tell you whether you're paying more than you need to in this market.

Curious what these shifts mean for your freight spend? Let's talk.