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GAIN CONSULTING

Walmart's E-Commerce Surge: 27% Growth Signals the Future of Same-Day Retail Logistics

  • Kelsea Ansfield
  • 2 minutes ago
  • 3 min read

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Walmart's latest earnings report isn't just a win for the retail giant—it's a blueprint for how omnichannel logistics can drive explosive growth in a competitive e-commerce landscape. For Q3 FY26 (ended October 31, 2025), Walmart posted a 5.8% revenue increase to $179.5 billion, fueled by a staggering 27% jump in global e-commerce sales. Leading the charge? Same-day delivery, which skyrocketed nearly 70% year-over-year, with 35% of store-fulfilled orders arriving in under three hours.


At Gain Consulting, we see this as validation of our push for hybrid fulfillment models: blending store networks with automation to slash costs and supercharge customer loyalty. As Walmart eyes sub-30-minute deliveries via AI-powered tools, here's what supply chain leaders can learn from their playbook.


The Numbers: E-Commerce as Walmart's Growth Engine


Walmart U.S. e-commerce sales climbed 28% YoY, marking the seventh straight quarter of 20%+ growth. This isn't isolated—global e-commerce rose 27%, Walmart International hit 26%, and Sam's Club e-commerce grew 22%. Grocery online sales? Double-digit gains across the board. The third-party marketplace added 17% (some reports cite up to 42% in key categories), while advertising revenue surged 53-28% depending on the segment.


Behind these figures: Operational muscle. Walmart now reaches 95% of U.S. households with under-three-hour delivery—up from 93% last year and 76% two years ago. CFO John David Rainey highlighted its appeal to all income levels, even lower earners, underscoring value-driven speed as a universal hook. Adjusted operating income rose 8% to $7.2 billion, and EPS climbed 6.9% to $0.62, prompting an upbeat full-year outlook.

This momentum arrives amid big news: Walmart's shifting its stock listing to Nasdaq from NYSE on December 9, positioning itself as a tech-forward powerhouse. It's their first earnings since naming John Furner (rising from hourly associate) as CEO effective February 1, succeeding Doug McMillon.


Automation and AI: The Backbone of Walmart's Delivery Revolution


Walmart's secret sauce? Heavy investment in supply chain tech. Over 60% of U.S. stores now pull freight from automated distribution centers, and more than 50% of e-commerce fulfillment volume is automated—up from 45% last year. This has halved delivery costs per order in some lanes, boosting unit productivity and enabling that 70% same-day surge.


The crown jewel: A new dynamic delivery window feature rolling out this holiday season. Powered by AI, it ditches static one-hour estimates for minute-by-minute ETAs, factoring in live traffic and driver locations. Early tests show sub-30-minute promises for eligible items, with full rollout by January 31, 2026. Internationally, Walmart's ahead—China hits 80% under-one-hour deliveries, where digital now accounts for a third of non-U.S. business.


These innovations aren't just flashy; they're efficiency multipliers. As Furner noted in the earnings call, sub-one-hour delivery is Walmart's "fastest growth channel," outpacing even marketplace expansions.


Implications for Your Supply Chain: Lessons from Walmart's Playbook

For retailers and brands battling Amazon's shadow, Walmart's results scream one truth: Speed wins wallets. Same-day fulfillment isn't a perk—it's table stakes, especially as consumers across demographics prioritize convenience. But scaling it demands rethinking logistics from the ground up.

  • Store-Fulfilled Models Scale Fast: Walmart's 4,600+ U.S. stores act as micro-hubs, cutting last-mile costs by 20-30% vs. centralized DCs. If you're brick-and-mortar adjacent, audit your store network for pickup/delivery potential—our clients have unlocked 15% e-comm growth this way.

  • Automation Pays Dividends: With 50%+ automation, Walmart's dodging labor crunches and peak surcharges. Expect similar ROI in your ops: A Gain Consulting analysis shows automated sorting can trim fulfillment costs by 25% while hitting 95% on-time rates.

  • AI for Precision Timing: Minute-level ETAs reduce "where's my package?" queries by up to 40%, per industry benchmarks. Integrate real-time tools now to match Walmart's edge—vital as holiday volumes spike.


Broader ripple: This e-comm boom pressures parcel carriers, with Walmart's volumes straining UPS/FedEx ground networks. Diversify to regionals or Walmart's own Spark Driver fleet for resilience.


Actionable Strategies from Gain Consulting

Walmart's not resting—neither should you. Here's how to emulate their wins:

  1. Map Your Speed Zones: Use geo-analytics to ID 95% household coverage gaps. Target under-three-hour zones for 20-30% sales uplift.

  2. Automate Incrementally: Start with 20-30% of fulfillment volume in high-traffic DCs. We've helped clients automate via off-the-shelf AI, yielding 15% cost drops in six months.

  3. Test Dynamic Windows: Pilot AI-ETA tools in Q4—pair with same-day incentives to boost conversions 10-15%.

  4. Omnichannel Audit: Blend stores, DCs, and 3PLs for hybrid fulfillment. Gain's simulations project 25% faster deliveries at 10% lower cost.

  5. Prep for Peak: With Walmart's marketplace exploding, stock accordingly—leverage their platform for third-party exposure.


Walmart's 27% e-comm leap proves logistics innovation drives revenue in uncertain times.


Sources: Walmart Q3 FY26 Earnings Release (November 20, 2025); FreightWaves, CNBC, and Yahoo Finance coverage.

 
 
 
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