US-Mexico Freight Plunges 9.7% in September 2025: A Wake-Up Call for North American Supply Chains
- Kelsea Ansfield
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) released its estimated TransBorder Freight Data for September 2025 today, revealing a notable slowdown in cross-border trade amid ongoing economic headwinds. Total transborder freight between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico clocked in at an estimated $127.8 billion—a 6.2% drop from September 2024. While these figures are preliminary (derived from a four-year average due to data disruptions from the recent government shutdown), they signal caution for supply chain leaders reliant on North American flows.
At Gain Consulting, we view these estimates as a critical pulse-check on nearshoring progress and trade resilience. With actual data delayed until systems resume, now's the time to audit your border exposures and stress-test contingency plans. Let's unpack the numbers, mode breakdowns, and what they mean for your operations.
Key Highlights: A Tale of Diverging Borders
The decline wasn't uniform: U.S.-Canada trade held steadier at $62.3 billion (down just 2.3% YoY), buoyed by energy and manufacturing links. In contrast, U.S.-Mexico freight tumbled to $65.5 billion—a sharp 9.7% drop—highlighting vulnerabilities in automotive and electronics supply chains. This border, which overtook Canada as the U.S.'s top trading partner in 2023, is feeling the pinch from softening demand and potential tariff whispers.
Breaking it down by mode (all estimates in billions USD):
Mode | Total Value | YoY Change | U.S.-Canada | U.S.-Mexico |
Truck | $80.3 | -9.2% | $34.2 | $46.1 |
Rail | $16.7 | -2.2% | $8.9 | $7.7 |
Pipeline | $9.8 | -15.2% | $9.0 | $0.9 |
Vessel | $10.2 | -0.5% | $2.9 | $7.3 |
Air | $4.6 | +0.14% | $1.7 | $2.8 |
Trucks, the workhorse of transborder logistics (63% of total value), bore the brunt of the decline, underscoring capacity strains at key crossings. Pipelines saw the steepest fall, tied to volatile energy markets, while air—ever the high-value lifeline—edged up slightly on urgent shipments. Vessels remained flat, a bright spot for bulk commodities.
Top Ports and Commodities: Where the Action (and Pain) Is
Border bottlenecks amplify these trends. For trucking:
U.S.-Canada: Detroit, Port Huron, and Buffalo lead, handling vehicles and machinery.
U.S.-Mexico: Laredo, El Paso, and Otay Mesa dominate, with vehicles ($20.6B) and computers ($18.2B) as top commodities.
Rail hubs mirror this: Detroit and International Falls for Canada; Laredo and Eagle Pass for Mexico. Pipelines flow strongest from Chicago and Port Huron northward, and El Paso southward. Waterborne energy moves via Boston and Portland to Canada, and Houston to Mexico.
The top five ports by value (in millions USD) paint a vivid picture of Mexico's outsized role:
Rank | Port (State) | Value (Sep 2025 Est.) | Top Commodity (Value) |
1 | Laredo, TX | $25,161 | Vehicles ($20,632M) |
2 | Detroit, MI | $12,227 | Mineral Fuels ($18,423M) |
3 | Port Huron, MI | $8,653 | Computers ($18,209M) |
4 | Buffalo, NY | $7,127 | Electrical Machinery ($14,569M) |
5 | Ysleta, TX | $6,146 | Plastics ($4,931M) |
Vehicles and electronics dominate, reflecting just-in-time auto production strains—think Ford and GM plants idled by chip shortages or labor issues. These estimates don't adjust for inflation or tonnage, so real-volume drops may be even steeper.
Why This Matters: Signals for Supply Chain Resilience
A 6.2% transborder dip isn't catastrophic, but it's a yellow flag in a year of mixed signals. Nearshoring from Asia has boosted Mexico's profile (up 5% in H1 2025 volumes), yet September's slump suggests demand softening—perhaps from U.S. consumer pullback or inventory overhangs post-summer. The truck and pipeline declines point to immediate risks: border wait times averaged 2-3 hours at Laredo in Q3, per CBP data, eroding efficiency.
For Gain Consulting clients in manufacturing, retail, and CPG, this translates to:
Rising Costs: Expect 5-10% hikes in drayage and customs brokerage if truck volumes stay muted.
Lead Time Volatility: Rail's relative stability offers a pivot, but pipeline woes could spike energy inputs.
Diversification Imperative: Over-reliance on Mexico (51% of total freight) demands backups like Canadian rail or domestic sourcing.
Historically, transborder freight leads U.S. GDP by 1-2 quarters; a sustained Q4 drop could foreshadow sub-2% growth in 2026.
Actionable Insights from Gain Consulting
Don't wait for official September data or the next release on January 7, 2026. Here's how to fortify your strategy:
Audit Border Exposures: Map your top commodities and ports—prioritize Laredo/Mexico flows for scenario planning (e.g., +20% delays).
Mode-Switch Proactively: Shift 20-30% of truck volume to rail for non-urgent loads; we've seen 15% cost savings in similar slowdowns.
Tech-Enable Visibility: Deploy TMS tools for real-time border monitoring—integrate CBP wait times to reroute dynamically.
Negotiate Flex Contracts: Lock in volume commitments with carriers now, before Q4 peak surcharges layer on.
Nearshore Smarter: Evaluate Canadian alternatives for electronics; diversify beyond vehicles to buffer Mexico risks.
Transborder trade is the backbone of North American competitiveness—weakening it weakens us all. Partner with Gain Consulting to model these estimates against your KPIs and build antifragile chains.
For full historical data, visit BTS TransBorder Freight releases. Gain Consulting: Turning data disruptions into strategic advantages. Contact us for a complimentary border risk assessment.
Sources: BTS TransBorder Freight Data (November 19, 2025 estimates).
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