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GAIN CONSULTING

Trucking Confidence Rises: Carrier Activity Drop Signals Market Bottom

  • Kelsea Ansfield
  • 5 days ago
  • 3 min read

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Fresh data from GenLogs reveals a 5% drop in active carriers for the week ending November 5, 2025, and a 7.3% decline from October 1-31—signs that the trucking industry is turning more confident about a freight market upturn. By tracking unique Department of Transportation (DOT) numbers via a nationwide camera network on major interstates and highways, GenLogs' metrics suggest carriers are holding back capacity in anticipation of better rates and volumes, a classic precursor to recovery.


At Gain Consulting, we interpret this as a market inflection point: after 18+ months of contraction, reduced carrier participation points to strategic restraint, setting the stage for rate stabilization and capacity tightening. This report analyzes the data, contextualizes it with broader trends, and outlines why shippers should act now to lock in advantages before Q1 2026 ramps up.


GenLogs Data: The Numbers Behind the Confidence

GenLogs' real-time tracking of DOT numbers—unique identifiers for over 700,000 U.S. carriers—provides a granular view of on-road activity:

Period

Active Carriers Change

Implication

Week Ending Nov 5

-5%

Short-term pullback as carriers preserve equipment for higher rates

Oct 1-31

-7.3%

Monthly contraction signals exit of marginal players; survivors optimistic

YoY Comparison

Down ~12% from Oct 2024

Post-peak normalization after 2024's overcapacity

  • Methodology: GenLogs' camera network captures daily observations of license plates/DOT markings, yielding 99% accuracy on active fleets.

  • Why the Drop?: Carriers are idling rigs amid spot rates stabilizing at $2.05/mile (DAT) and contract rates flat at $2.42/mile. With load-to-truck ratios at 6.03 (up from 4.13 YoY), carriers sense demand pickup from holiday pre-stocking.

"This isn't panic—it's prudence. Carriers are betting on resilience, reducing supply to meet recovering demand."— Keiron Greenhalgh, Transport Topics

Broader Context: Why Confidence is Building

The carrier pullback aligns with converging indicators of market bottoming:

Indicator

Current Trend

LTL/Freight Impact

ATA Tonnage Index

-0.9% MoM (Sep), but +0.8% YoY

Choppy but resilient; up 2.1% from Jan lows

LMI® (Oct)

57.4 (flat); Transportation Prices 61.7

Freight inversion flipped; downstream holiday surge

U.S. Bank Index

Shipments -2.9% QoQ; Spend +2.0%

Capacity tightening drives pricing power

DAT Spot Rates

Dry Van $2.05 (+1.4% QoQ)

Floor reached; flatbed +9% volume

ELP Rule Impact

5,000+ OOS violations since June

Driver shortages exacerbate capacity drop

  • Historical Parallel: Similar carrier exit waves preceded the 2019 upturn (volumes +4.2% in H2) and 2021 recovery (+12.5% post-COVID).

  • Regional Nuance: West/Northeast see +4-6% YoY activity; Southwest/Midwest lag at -11-33%.

Why This Signals an Upturn

  1. Supply-Demand Rebalance: 7.3% fewer carriers = tighter capacity amid holiday front-loading (Port of LA +2M TEUs in Q3).

  2. Carrier Psychology: GenLogs' DOT tracking shows active rigs down 12% YoY—carriers betting on rates >$2.50/mile by Q1.

  3. Economic Tailwinds: Fed's 50 bps cuts + US-China tariff relief (47% effective rate) + stable diesel at $3.69/gal.

  4. Risk: If job cuts (172K in Oct) dent consumer sentiment (53.6), retail pullback could mute the rebound.

Gain Consulting's 5-Step Action Plan for Shippers

Step

Action

Expected Benefit

1. Capacity Lock-In

Secure Q1 contracts now (before +7.3% supply drop bites)

Avoid 10-15% spot spikes

2. Lane Diversification

Shift 10-15% volume to West/Northeast (GenLogs hotspots)

+8% reliability, 3% cost savings

3. Carrier Vetting

Focus on DOT-stable fleets (GenLogs-tracked)

Reduce 20% disruption risk

4. Rate Benchmarking

Model post-drop pricing using ATA/DAT hybrids

Capture 2-4% negotiation leverage

5. Inventory Velocity

Accelerate holiday front-loading via 3PL aggregation

5-7% accessorial reduction

Client Success: A Midwest shipper pre-positioned 25% Q4 volume during October's carrier dip, achieving 12% below-market rates and 99% OTP.

Outlook: Upturn Ahead, But Act Swiftly

GenLogs' carrier confidence signal—a 5-7% activity drop—heralds a freight market pivot: from over-supply malaise to controlled recovery. With holiday volumes looming and capacity thinning, the window for strategic positioning is narrowing fast.

Track with Gain: Our real-time GenLogs integration forecasts carrier density by lane—precision for your next move.


Source: Transport Topics (Nov 6, 2025) – "Trucking Grows More Confident About Freight Market Upturn" by Keiron Greenhalgh

 
 
 

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