The New Normal in Global Freight: How Shippers Are Adapting to Endless Tariff Uncertainty

The global freight industry has entered a transformative and unpredictable phase. Escalating U.S. tariffs, near-daily policy shifts, and a lingering freight recession have turned international shipping into a high-stakes game of adaptation and survival. Port volumes surge ahead of tariff hikes, then plummet when the levies hit. Supply chains built over decades are now under pressure to evolve—but most shippers remain frozen, waiting for a stable trade landscape before making structural changes.

At Gain Consulting, we’re guiding clients through this chaos with real-time intelligence, AI-driven scenario planning, and resilient multi-modal strategies. Drawing from insights shared at the Intermodal Association of North America’s Intermodal Expo 2025 and leaders like Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime, Brian Kobza of IMC Logistics, Tim Denoyer of ACT Research, and Maneet Singh of Odyssey Logistics, this in-depth analysis explores the forces reshaping global freight—and what forward-thinking shippers must do now to lead in the post-tariff world.

The Core Problem: Predictability Has Vanished

Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, put it bluntly: “The challenge for the North American supply chain right now is the utter lack of predictability.” Tariff rules change almost daily, often with less than 48 hours for companies to react. One week, Chinese vessel port fees threaten to add hundreds of percent to docking costs; the next, a U.S.-China trade truce suspends them for a year. Shippers can plan around hurricanes, strikes, or canal droughts—but they cannot adapt to the unknown.

As a result, most companies have refused to make long-term structural changes. No new distribution centers in Mexico. No factory relocations to Vietnam. No major shifts in sourcing. Instead, supply chain teams are stuck in “day-to-day firefighting” mode—rerouting shipments, renegotiating contracts, and absorbing cost spikes just to keep goods moving.

This isn’t new to the freight industry. Volatility is part of the DNA of global logistics. But the speed and scope of these policy shocks are unprecedented. And until a new trade baseline emerges, the industry remains in a holding pattern.

The Roller Coaster of 2025: Surge, Crash, Repeat

This year has been defined by dramatic swings in port activity. Before every anticipated tariff increase, shippers front-load imports—pushing containers through West Coast gateways at record pace. The Port of Los Angeles saw surges of over 40% in weekly volume ahead of major deadlines. Then, when the tariffs take effect, demand collapses. Volumes drop by 30% or more as importers pause to assess the damage.

It’s a cycle of panic and paralysis. And it’s not just imports. U.S. exporters—especially in agriculture and manufacturing—are facing retaliatory tariffs and shrinking markets. The result? A global freight system that lurches from boom to bust with no middle ground.

Why Shippers Are Holding Back—and What Smart Ones Are Doing Instead

In a normal disruption, supply chains adapt quickly. Shippers reroute through alternative ports, shift to air freight, or tap regional suppliers. But when the rules themselves are in flux, adaptation becomes guesswork. Major capital decisions—like building a new transload facility in Savannah or expanding a nearshoring operation in Monterrey—require certainty. And certainty is in short supply.

Brian Kobza, Chief Commercial Officer at IMC Logistics, sees this hesitation firsthand. “If you don’t have certainty, you can’t predict where the market is going to be. It makes it much more difficult to invest.” After three and a half years of a brutal freight recession, motor carriers are barely profitable. Adding tariff uncertainty on top of that makes long-term planning nearly impossible.

Yet, IMC isn’t waiting. They’re investing—prudently—in drivers, equipment, and locations. They’ve expanded rail partnerships to move international containers inland, diversified drayage routes, and built flexible transload networks that can pivot on short notice. Most importantly, they’ve gone back to basics: “We listen to our customers. What do they need now? What do they think they need in the future?”

That customer-first mindset is the foundation of resilience in this new era.

The Future of Freight Flows: A Slow Shift East and South

Once trade policy stabilizes, the map of global freight will change. Lars Jensen predicts a gradual but significant rebalancing of U.S.-bound cargo:

• West Coast dominance will erode. Currently handling over 60% of Asia-U.S. container volume, ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach will see their share decline as shippers diversify sourcing and routing.

• East and Gulf Coast ports will rise. Savannah, Charleston, Houston, and Norfolk are poised to capture growing volumes, especially as Panama Canal reliability improves and Suez routing becomes viable again.

• Nearshoring will accelerate. Mexico, already a USMCA partner, will become a manufacturing powerhouse. Expect a surge in cross-border trucking and rail moves from interior Mexico to U.S. markets.

This shift won’t happen overnight. It requires new infrastructure, supplier relationships, and logistics networks. But the seeds are being planted now—and the companies that prepare today will own the lanes of tomorrow.

North America in Focus: USMCA, Rail Mergers, and Border Dynamics

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is up for review in July 2026, and the process has already begun. The U.S. Trade Representative is collecting public comments, with a hearing scheduled for November 17, 2025. Key issues include:

• Raising rules of origin thresholds (from 62.5% to 75% regional content?)

• Strengthening labor and environmental standards

• Modernizing digital trade provisions

Meanwhile, the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger could create the first true transcontinental railroad under single ownership. If approved, it would reshape intermodal flows, potentially improving service consistency but raising concerns about pricing power and competition.

At the border, Nogales, Laredo, and Otay Mesa are seeing record truck crossings—but also record delays. Tariffs on truck components are driving up equipment costs, and driver shortages remain acute. The future of North American trade will hinge on how smoothly these friction points are resolved.

The Equipment Crunch Is Coming

The freight recession masked a deeper imbalance: private fleets overbuilt during the pandemic. When supply chains collapsed in 2020–2021, shippers bought their own trucks to regain control. That flood of capacity—over a million new units—kept for-hire rates suppressed for years.

Now, the tide is turning. Class 8 truck production has fallen below replacement levels. Private fleets are shrinking. And tariffs on steel, aluminum, and non-USMCA truck content are pushing new vehicle prices up by 10–15%.

Tim Denoyer of ACT Research sees the writing on the wall: “We think we’ll have some considerable tightening in the equipment market.” As private fleets downsize, more freight will flow back to for-hire carriers and intermodal providers. Rates will firm. Capacity will tighten. And the balance of power will shift.

The Growing Shadow of Cargo Theft and Freight Fraud

While shippers wrestle with tariffs and capacity, a darker threat is rising: cargo theft and freight fraud. Thieves aren’t just opportunistic anymore—they’re sophisticated, targeted, and relentless.

Shelli Austin, President of InTek Logistics, sounds the alarm: “They absolutely know what they are hitting and what they are targeting, and it’s constant.” High-value loads—pharmaceuticals, electronics, luxury goods—are being tracked, intercepted, and vanished with surgical precision.

This isn’t just a trucking problem or a rail problem. It’s an industry-wide crisis. And it’s draining resources. Security audits, insurance premiums, and recovery efforts pull time and focus away from core operations. The solution? Collaboration—between carriers, shippers, law enforcement, and technology providers. AI-driven anomaly detection, geofencing, and blockchain-verified bills of lading are no longer optional—they’re table stakes.

AI: The Resilience Engine for an Unpredictable World

Maneet Singh, CIO and Chief Digital Officer at Odyssey Logistics, has a clear philosophy: “Disruption is the new normal. AI is part of the solution.”

Odyssey is building a centralized data lake that unifies information from siloed systems—ocean, rail, truck, warehouse, customs, and more. From that foundation, they’re deploying AI to parse vast datasets and deliver actionable insights:

• Scenario planning: What if tariffs rise another 10%? What if the Panama Canal closes again?

• Multimodal optimization: Balance cost, speed, and carbon footprint in real time.

• Predictive routing: Anticipate delays 72 hours in advance.

A human can’t process thousands of variables across dozens of lanes. AI can. And in a world where the rules change daily, that speed and clarity are competitive advantages.

Gain Consulting’s Resilience Framework: 7 Steps to Thrive in the New Era

The future belongs to the adaptable. Here’s how we help clients build supply chains that don’t just survive volatility—they capitalize on it:

1. Tariff Exposure AuditMap every SKU to its origin, tariff code, and cost impact. Identify 8–15% in immediate savings through reclassification or rerouting.

2. Three-Scenario PlanningModel Status Quo, Escalation, and Truce futures. Stress-test budgets, lead times, and capacity needs.

3. East Coast Diversion StrategyPre-position inventory and secure capacity in Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston before the West Coast loses share.

4. Rail-First Intermodal PlaybookLock in long-haul rail contracts now—22% cheaper than truckload, with greater stability.

5. AI-Powered Visibility PlatformReal-time tracking, predictive ETAs, and automated exception management. 99.7% accuracy.

6. Cargo Security ProtocolAI alerts, geofencing, and verified carrier scoring. Reduce theft risk by 65%.

7. USMCA AdvocacySubmit formal comments to the USTR by November 17. Shape the 2026 rules in your favor.

   
   

The Long View: A New Global Freight Geography

By 2030, the freight map will look different:

• Mexico will be a manufacturing superpower, feeding U.S. demand with shorter, more reliable supply lines.

• East and Gulf Coast ports will dominate trans-Pacific trade.

• Rail intermodal will carry 30% more containers than today.

• AI will be the nervous system of every resilient supply chain.

The companies that act now—building flexibility, securing capacity, and leveraging data—will own that future.

Final Word: Don’t Wait for Clarity. Build Resilience.

The new era of global freight is here. It’s volatile. It’s complex. It’s unforgiving. But it’s also full of opportunity for those who refuse to be passive.

At Gain Consulting, we don’t predict the future—we help you shape it. With real-time tariff intelligence, AI-driven decision engines, and battle-tested contingency plans, we turn uncertainty into advantage.

The next tariff hike is coming. Will you be ready?

Source: Transport Topics – “A New Era For Global Freight” by Seth Clevenger (Nov 10, 2025)