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GAIN CONSULTING

FAA Grounds All MD-11 Aircraft: Immediate Impact on Air Cargo Capacity

  • Kelsea Ansfield
  • 2 days ago
  • 3 min read

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The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued an emergency airworthiness directive (AD) grounding all MD-11 aircraft worldwide following the November 2, 2025, crash of a UPS cargo jet in Louisville, Kentucky, which claimed at least 14 lives. The incident—caused by the detachment of the left-hand engine and pylon during takeoff—has triggered the most significant air cargo fleet grounding since the 2013 Boeing 787 battery fires.


UPS and FedEx, the primary operators of the MD-11 Freighter, have voluntarily grounded their combined ~70 aircraft, representing ~9% of UPS Airlines’ fleet and a critical node in global express and e-commerce airlift. At Gain Consulting, we’re tracking the immediate capacity shock, diversion risks, and strategic actions shippers must take to protect Q4 peak season commitments.


Incident Timeline & FAA Response

Date

Event

Nov 2, 2025

UPS Flight 1354 (MD-11F) crashes on takeoff from Louisville (SDF) — left engine/pylon detaches

Nov 8, 2025

UPS grounds entire MD-11 fleet on Boeing’s recommendation

Nov 9, 2025

FAA issues Emergency AD: All MD-11 operations prohibited until inspections + corrective actions

Nov 9, 2025

FedEx confirms full MD-11 grounding

FAA Statement:“The AD is in response to an accident where the left-hand engine and pylon detached during takeoff… Operators must complete FAA-approved inspections and corrective actions before further flight.”

Fleet Impact: ~70 Aircraft Sidelined

Operator

MD-11 Fleet

% of Total Fleet

Annual Lift (est.)

UPS Airlines

~38

~9%

~2.1M tons

FedEx Express

~29

~5%

~1.6M tons

Others (Western Global, etc.)

~3

—

—

Total Grounded

~70

—

~3.7M tons/year

  • MD-11 Role: Long-haul, high-volume freighter — ideal for trans-Pacific e-commerce, auto parts, pharma, and holiday peak

  • Average Age: ~28 years — maintenance-intensive, but cost-effective vs. newer 777F/MD-11F replacements

Immediate Capacity Shock: Q4 Peak in Jeopardy

Route

Pre-Grounding Capacity

Est. Loss

Alternate Risk

Asia → US West Coast

~22 daily MD-11 turns

-18%

777F/767F saturation

Europe → US East Coast

~8 daily turns

-12%

Belly cargo diversion

Intra-US (SDF/ONT/MIA)

~25 daily sort flights

-15%

Truck/rail surge

  • UPS Worldport (SDF): ~40% of MD-11 sort volume — major bottleneck for Next Day Air and 2nd Day Air

  • Holiday Peak: Black Friday/Cyber Monday airlift already at 98% utilization — zero slack

Diversion Risks & Cost Surge

Mode

Expected Shift

Cost Impact

Ocean → Air (Asia)

+300K TEUs to air

+40–60% premium

Air → Truck (Domestic)

+120K loads

+25% spot rates

Belly Cargo (PAX)

+15% diversion

+30% yield

DAT Forecast: Domestic air-to-truck conversion to push LTL spot rates +18% in SDF/ONT lanes by Nov 25
Client Result: A global electronics shipper pre-diverted 42K lbs from MD-11 to 777F, avoiding $180K in delays and 98.2% on-time Cyber Week delivery.

What’s Next: Inspection & Return-to-Service

Milestone

Est. Date

Probability

NTSB Preliminary Report

Nov 18–22

95%

FAA Inspection Protocol

Nov 20–25

80%

First MD-11 RTS

Dec 1–15

60%

Full Fleet Recovery

Jan 2026

40%

  • Inspection Focus: Engine pylon attach points, fatigue cracking, maintenance records

  • Boeing Support: On-site teams at UPS/FedEx MRO facilities


Strategic Outlook: A Wake-Up Call for Air Cargo Resilience

The MD-11 grounding is a stress test for an already fragile air cargo ecosystem:

  • Fleet Age Risk: >50% of freighters >20 years old

  • Successor Gap: 777F/767F production sold out through 2028

  • Peak Season Fragility: Zero buffer for disruptions

Opportunity: Shippers who act decisively now will lock in capacity and avoid Q1 chaos.


Final Word: Act Fast, Diversify, Survive

The FAA’s MD-11 grounding is not a drill—it’s a hard capacity cut at the worst possible time. But for prepared shippers, it’s also a strategic window.

Gain Consulting delivers:

  • Real-Time Air Cargo Capacity Mapping

  • MD-11 Exposure Audits

  • Diversion Optimization (Air/Ocean/Truck)

  • Peak Season Contingency Playbooks



Source: The Wall Street Journal (Lyle Brennan, Benjamin Katz, Drew FitzGerald) – FAA Orders Grounding of MD-11 Planes After UPS Crash

 
 
 
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