Navigating 2025 Logistics Trends: NMFC Overhaul, Ocean Freight Declines, and Intermodal Shifts

Introduction to Evolving Logistics Challenges

The logistics industry in 2025 is undergoing significant transformation, driven by regulatory updates, shifting market dynamics, and evolving freight volumes. From the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) overhaul to declining ocean freight rates and mixed intermodal performance, these changes present both challenges and opportunities for shippers and carriers. At Gain Consulting, we are committed to helping our clients navigate this complex landscape with data-driven strategies and tailored solutions. This blog post explores three key developments reported in July 2025: the NMFC system overhaul, a five-week decline in ocean freight rates, and a slight annual drop in intermodal volumes.

NMFC Overhaul: A Shift to Density-Based Classification

The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) is implementing a major overhaul of the NMFC system, effective July 19, 2025, transitioning to a density-based classification framework. As detailed in Supply Chain Management Review (July 18, 2025), NMFTA’s Keith Peterson explained that the new system introduces a 13-sub density scale, consolidating approximately 40% of commodity codes to streamline freight classification. This shift requires precise measurements of freight dimensions and weight on Bills of Lading to ensure accurate pricing and compliance. To support the industry, NMFTA has launched tools like GetClassification.com, ClassIT+, and expanded training programs. Peterson emphasized the integration of APIs to keep stakeholders updated, noting, “We’re building APIs into this so people can keep up to date.” Non-members can also access support through NMFTA’s interpretations department, which provides guidance on the new system.

No Penalties, but Proactive Planning Urged

Importantly, the NMFTA has confirmed that shippers will not face immediate penalties for failing to update classifications by the July 19 deadline. However, Peterson urged proactive planning to avoid disruptions, as inaccurate classifications could lead to higher costs or disputes. The overhaul aims to enhance consistency and transparency in freight pricing, but it demands that shippers and carriers adopt precise measurement practices. Carriers like Southeastern Freight Lines have already invested in dimensioners to meet these requirements, as reported by Trucking Dive (July 10, 2025), highlighting the industry’s shift toward technology-driven compliance. Gain Consulting can assist clients in implementing measurement technologies and training staff to ensure seamless adaptation to the new NMFC standards.

Ocean Freight Rates Decline for Fifth Consecutive Week

In parallel, ocean freight rates are experiencing a downward trend, as reported by FreightWaves (July 18, 2025). Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) declined 2.6% for the week ending July 17, 2025, marking the fifth consecutive week of decreases. This follows a volatile period triggered by increased U.S. tariffs in April 2025 and a subsequent China-U.S. tariff pause, which disrupted global shipping markets. The WCI, which tracks spot rates for container shipping across major trade lanes, indicates a significant shift in market dynamics, with rates stabilizing after earlier spikes. For example, the Shanghai-to-Los Angeles route saw rates drop to $3,762 per 40-foot container, down 4% week-over-week, according to Drewry’s data. This decline offers cost relief for shippers but may signal softening demand or increased capacity in certain trade lanes.

Factors Driving Ocean Freight Trends

The five-week decline in ocean freight rates reflects a combination of factors, including resolved tariff uncertainties and improved port efficiencies. The tariff pause between China and the U.S. has alleviated pressure on shipping costs, while global container capacity has stabilized following disruptions in 2024. However, Drewry notes that rates remain 36% higher than in July 2024, driven by earlier supply chain bottlenecks and fuel cost increases. With diesel prices rising to $3.758 per gallon in July 2025, as reported by Transport Topics (July 15, 2025), ocean carriers may face pressure to balance lower rates with rising operational costs. Shippers can capitalize on these lower rates by locking in contracts or optimizing container utilization, strategies Gain Consulting supports through market analysis and negotiation support.

Intermodal Volumes Reflect Mixed Performance

Intermodal freight, a critical component of integrated logistics, showed a slight annual decline in June 2025, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), as reported by Logistics Management (July 21, 2025). Total intermodal volume reached 1,469,872 units, down 0.3% from June 2024, following a 0.5% annual increase in May. The data reveals varied performance across equipment types: trailers plummeted 27.8% to 34,594 units, while domestic containers edged up 0.1% to 691,392 units. All domestic equipment, comprising trailers and domestic containers, totaled 725,986 units, down 1.7% annually. In contrast, international (ISO) containers rose 1.0% to 743,886 units, reflecting resilience in global trade despite domestic challenges.

Intermodal Trends and Market Implications

The decline in trailer volumes highlights a shift toward containerized freight, driven by cost efficiencies and infrastructure improvements in rail networks. Domestic containers’ slight growth suggests steady demand for regional freight, while the increase in ISO containers aligns with stabilizing ocean freight markets. However, the overall 0.3% decline in intermodal volumes indicates cautious market conditions, potentially influenced by economic uncertainty or shifts to alternative modes like trucking. The NMFC overhaul’s emphasis on density-based pricing may further impact intermodal competitiveness, as accurate classifications become critical for cost management. Gain Consulting helps clients optimize intermodal strategies, balancing rail and trucking to minimize costs while meeting delivery requirements.

Industry-Wide Implications and Challenges

The convergence of the NMFC overhaul, declining ocean freight rates, and mixed intermodal performance underscores the complexity of the 2025 logistics landscape. The NMFC changes demand technological investments, such as dimensioners, to ensure compliance, while declining ocean rates offer temporary relief but require strategic contract planning to lock in savings. Intermodal’s uneven performance highlights the need for diversified freight strategies to mitigate risks from volume fluctuations. Additionally, rising diesel prices, as noted earlier, add pressure on operational costs across all modes, with the July 2025 price of $3.758 per gallon signaling potential further increases. Businesses must navigate these challenges while preparing for peak-season demands, such as those prompting FedEx’s One Rate price adjustments from October 27, 2025, to January 18, 2026.

Gain Consulting’s Role in Driving Success

Gain Consulting is uniquely positioned to guide shippers and carriers through these dynamic changes. For the NMFC overhaul, we offer expertise in implementing measurement technologies, training teams, and ensuring compliance to avoid costly errors. In the ocean freight market, our team analyzes rate trends and negotiates contracts to maximize savings during periods of decline, such as the current five-week drop. For intermodal operations, we provide data-driven strategies to optimize mode selection, balancing rail and trucking to achieve cost efficiency and reliability. By integrating real-time market insights, such as those from Drewry’s WCI and IANA’s volume reports, we empower clients to stay ahead of industry shifts.

Preparing for a Dynamic Future

As the logistics industry evolves in 2025, proactive planning is essential. The NMFC overhaul requires immediate attention to measurement accuracy, supported by NMFTA’s tools like GetClassification.com and ClassIT+. Declining ocean freight rates offer opportunities to reduce costs, but shippers must act quickly to secure favorable terms. Intermodal’s mixed performance calls for flexible strategies to adapt to shifting volumes. With diesel prices trending upward and peak-season surcharges looming, businesses need comprehensive solutions to maintain profitability. Gain Consulting is your trusted partner, delivering tailored guidance to navigate these challenges and capitalize on opportunities in a rapidly changing market.

Sources: Supply Chain Management Review, “LTL freight overhaul: NMFTA’s Keith Peterson explains changes to classification system,” Brian Straight, July 18, 2025; FreightWaves, “Drewry: Ocean Freight rates fall for fifth straight week,” Stuart Chirls, July 18, 2025; Drewry World Container Index, July 17, 2025; Logistics Management, “June intermodal volumes see a slight annual decline, reports IANA,” Jeff Berman, July 21, 2025; Transport Topics, “Diesel Price Nudges Up 1.9¢ to $3.758 a Gallon,” July 15, 2025; FedEx One Rate Special Pricing Program customer communication, July 18, 2025.