Cass Freight Index December 2025: Weather-Driven Dip in Shipments, But Rising Rates Signal Market Shifts

The latest Cass Freight Index® report for December 2025, released mid-January 2026 by Cass Information Systems, paints a picture of a freight market still grappling with seasonal and weather headwinds — yet showing early signs of tightening capacity and firmer pricing. As a key indicator of North American freight volumes and costs, the data offers timely insights for shippers navigating Q1 planning.

Shipments Component Hits Cycle Low

The shipments index (measuring freight volume across modes) fell sharply:

• -7.2% month-over-month (or -3.2% seasonally adjusted), reaching a new cycle low.

• -7.5% year-over-year, slightly worse than the full-year 2025 average decline of -6.1%.

Three major winter storms in the Midwest during early December disrupted highway networks, creating backlogs that spilled into spot market tightness through mid-January. Holiday retail spending held up better than expected, suggesting inventories were drawn down aggressively in late 2025 — with freight volumes lagging consumer trends.

Warmer weather in early January has helped clear much of the storm-related backlog, potentially setting up a January rebound that could outperform normal seasonal softness (which would otherwise point to ~5% y/y decline in shipments).

Expenditures Show Resilience Amid Lower Volumes

The expenditures index (total dollars spent on freight) declined more modestly:

• -1.9% month-over-month, but +0.2% seasonally adjusted.

• -0.6% year-over-year (following a -1.2% dip in November).

The flatter performance reflects a tug-of-war: significantly lower shipments offset by higher rates. For 2025 overall, expenditures fell just -0.5% — a stark contrast to the post-pandemic surges (up 38% in 2021, 23% in 2022) and subsequent corrections (-19% in 2023, -11% in 2024).

Truckload Linehaul Index Continues to Firm

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index (tracking base per-mile rates, excluding fuel/accessorials) rose:

• +1.0% month-over-month in December (fourth straight increase).

• +2.1% year-over-year (decelerating slightly from November's +2.2%).

• Full-year 2025: +1.8% (a turnaround after -10% in 2023 and -3.4% in 2024).

Rates climbed despite softer volumes, largely due to weather-constrained capacity. Spot markets showed the strongest run in four years through mid-January, with reefer segments remaining particularly tight. Dry van markets have begun to retrench seasonally, but overall balance briefly favored carriers in December.

Freight Market Outlook and Key Catalysts

Q4 2025 softness stemmed from multiple factors: severe weather, pre-tariff front-loading, and lingering private fleet overcapacity. Looking ahead:

• Pent-up demand from winter disruptions could lift January volumes.

• Holiday spending strength suggests restocking needs in early 2026.

• Ongoing capacity contraction (fewer trucks entering the market) supports rate stability or upside.

• The pending Supreme Court decision on IEEPA-based tariffs (including fentanyl/migration and reciprocal duties) remains a major wildcard. A ruling favoring importers could trigger refunds and spur demand as shippers adjust sourcing — potentially providing a positive catalyst amid otherwise soft for-hire trends.

Strategic Takeaways for U.S. Shippers

December's data underscores the need for agile planning:

• Monitor spot vs. contract dynamics — weather-driven tightness may fade seasonally, but restocking and capacity trends could sustain upward rate pressure.

• Prepare for volatility — Use tools like the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index to benchmark negotiations and explore mode shifts (e.g., intermodal) where beneficial.

• Watch tariff developments — Any Supreme Court outcome could reshape import flows and domestic freight demand quickly.

• Build resilience — Diversify carriers, buffer inventory strategically, and maintain strong relationships to handle disruptions.

At Gain Consulting, we help shippers interpret indicators like the Cass Freight Index to optimize transportation spend, forecast capacity needs, and adapt to evolving market conditions. Our team analyzes real-time data, tariff risks, and mode economics to deliver actionable strategies.

Whether you're facing higher linehaul rates, planning Q1 tenders, or evaluating tariff impacts, we're ready to support your supply chain goals.

For more freight market insights and customized logistics advice, connect with the Gain Consulting team today.

Gain Consulting LLC – Informed Strategies for a Dynamic Freight Environment