Navigating Trump’s Tariffs in 2026: Key Updates

U.S. trade policy continues to evolve rapidly under President Donald Trump’s second term, with a series of executive orders, reciprocal tariff implementations, and ongoing negotiations reshaping international supply chains. Since early 2025, the administration has imposed widespread duties — citing national security, trade deficits, fentanyl flows, and migration — while reaching framework deals with several partners and facing legal challenges.

As of the latest updates (January 16, 2026, per Supply Chain Dive tracking), the landscape includes enacted tariffs on major trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China, alongside agreements with the EU, Japan, South Korea, and others. Recent developments also feature threats tied to unrelated geopolitical issues, such as potential levies on European countries over Greenland discussions.

Current Status Highlights of Major Tariff Actions

• Canada and Mexico (“Fentanyl”/Migration Tariffs): Implemented in March 2025 under IEEPA authority. Rates stand at 35% on most Canadian goods (with 10% on energy/potash) and 25% on most Mexican goods (with 10% on potash). USMCA-qualifying products remain largely exempt or at reduced rates. Adjustments occurred through 2025, with ongoing threats of further increases.

• China: Multiple layers apply, including a 10% fentanyl-related tariff (reduced from higher levels in late 2025 agreements) and paused reciprocal rates (previously escalated significantly). A consensus de-escalation deal in October 2025 extended reductions through November 2026, providing temporary relief.

• Reciprocal Tariffs (Global Baseline): Rolled out in April 2025 at 10% on most imports (excluding certain sectors and partners). Country-specific rates (up to 41% or higher in some cases) took effect August 7, 2025. Exemptions exist for agricultural products, and pauses/extensions have been applied in response to negotiations.

• European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Others: Framework agreements reached in 2025 reduced or modified duties, often in exchange for investments or market access commitments. For example, deals with Japan and South Korea lowered Section 232 and reciprocal rates.

• Sector-Specific Tariffs (e.g., Section 232): Expanded in areas like steel/aluminum (up to 50% globally), semiconductors (narrow 25% on certain imports effective January 15, 2026, with exemptions for U.S. tech supply chain uses), and others like autos, lumber, and critical minerals.

• Recent Threats: In mid-January 2026, President Trump announced potential 10% tariffs (rising to 25% by June) on goods from eight European countries (including Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, etc., plus the U.K. and Norway) linked to Greenland acquisition talks. No official implementation yet.

Legal and Judicial Developments

Many IEEPA-based tariffs (fentanyl, reciprocal) face significant challenges. Lower courts (U.S. Court of International Trade and Federal Circuit) ruled them unlawful, but a stay keeps them in effect pending Supreme Court review. Oral arguments occurred in November 2025, with a decision potentially imminent in early 2026. If upheld as unlawful, refunds could be available for paid duties; importers are filing protective claims.

What This Means for U.S. Shippers

The fluctuating environment creates uncertainty in costs, sourcing decisions, and carrier negotiations. Key considerations include:

• Cost Volatility: Higher duties on key origins (especially trucking/rail-impacting modes) pressure landed costs — monitor mode shifts (e.g., rail/intermodal) for mitigation.

• Negotiation Leverage: Framework deals and pauses offer opportunities for diversified sourcing or renegotiated contracts.

• Compliance Risks: Watch for transshipment enforcement, exemptions, and potential retaliatory actions from partners.

• Supply Chain Resilience: Proactive strategies — such as nearshoring, inventory buffering, or alternative suppliers — are essential amid ongoing changes.

At Gain Consulting, we help U.S. shippers stay ahead by analyzing tariff impacts, optimizing routing and mode selection, benchmarking against current rates, and developing contingency plans. Our team tracks daily developments, including the Supply Chain Dive tracker and official proclamations, to provide actionable insights.

Whether you're dealing with North American cross-border flows, Asian imports, or European partnerships, we're equipped to minimize disruptions and control costs in this dynamic trade landscape.

The next major pivot could come from the Supreme Court ruling or new negotiations — we'll keep you informed.

For personalized guidance on how these tariffs affect your operations, reach out to the Gain Consulting team today.

Gain Consulting LLC – Navigating Complex Trade Policies for Smarter Supply Chains