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U.S. Shipping Growth in 2025 and Beyond According to ATA

Kelsea Ansfield


In a significant turn of events for the U.S. trucking industry, the American Trucking Association (ATA) has released a promising forecast indicating growth after a period of decline. At Gain Consulting, we understand the implications of these projections for shippers across the nation. Here's how the new data from the ATA, alongside insights from industry leaders, can shape your supply chain strategies for the coming years.


The ATA Forecast:

The ATA's latest report, "ATA Freight Transportation Forecast 2024 to 2035," developed in collaboration with S&P Global Market Intelligence, projects a 1.6% growth in truck volumes for 2025, with expectations to reach nearly 14 billion tons by 2035. This growth trajectory comes after two years where the industry experienced declines, suggesting a robust recovery and sustained growth in freight movement.


Bob Costello, ATA's chief economist, emphasizes the trucking industry's pivotal role, stating, "The trucking industry continues to dominate the freight transportation industry in terms of both tonnage and revenue." This dominance is expected to continue, with trucking comprising 72.7% of tonnage and 76.9% of revenue in 2024, projected to hold steady over the next decade.


Volatility in Recovery:

Despite the positive long-term outlook, the path to recovery has not been straightforward. The ATA Truck Tonnage Index for 2024 showed a volatile pattern, with significant fluctuations month-to-month. From January's low of a 3.5% decrease to February's high of a 4.3% increase, the year was marked by inconsistent freight conditions. By year-end, tonnage had fallen to its lowest since January 2024, highlighting the challenges in achieving stable growth.


Industry Optimism:

Several industry voices echo the ATA's optimism. ACT Research projects a modest 1.8% growth in freight demand year over year, aligning closely with ATA's forecasts. Moreover, Old Dominion Freight Line's CEO, Marty Freeman, has expressed confidence in the economic conditions improving in 2025, suggesting a year not just of growth but of prosperity.


The Truckstop Carrier Insight Survey further supports this optimism, with a significant majority of carriers anticipating better professional conditions, and only a small fraction considering exiting the industry. FTR's cautious yet positive outlook, predicting about a 1% growth in truck freight volumes, rounds out the picture of an industry poised for recovery.


Strategic Implications for Shippers:

  • Capacity Management: With expected growth in truck volumes, shippers should prepare for potential capacity constraints. Early and strategic planning with carriers could mitigate risks.

  • Rate Fluctuations: Anticipate rate changes as the market adjusts to new volumes. Shippers might find opportunities to negotiate favorable terms as carriers also adapt to increased demand.

  • Technology and Efficiency: Investing in technology for better route planning, load optimization, and real-time tracking can help in managing the volatility seen in 2024.

  • Policy and Regulation: As noted by Jason Miller from Michigan State University, government policies could significantly influence trucking demand. Shippers should stay informed on legislative changes that could impact logistics costs and operations.


A Case Study:

Hercules' Approach to LTL Shipping: Hercules, a less-than-truckload carrier, has shown that there are innovative ways to manage freight, especially in reducing claims and transit times by avoiding the traditional breakbulk model. Their direct shipping approach could be a blueprint for shippers looking to minimize damage and expedite delivery times.


Conclusion

The ATA's forecast signals a bright future for the trucking sector, which is crucial for U.S. shippers. At Gain Consulting, we're here to help you navigate these changes, ensuring your supply chain not only meets but exceeds the demands of this evolving market. Let's plan for prosperity together in 2025 and beyond.


Contact Gain Consulting to explore how we can tailor our services to your specific needs in this dynamic freight landscape.

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