U.S. Freight Transportation Services Index Dips in December 2025: Year-Over-Year Gains Persist
- Kelsea Ansfield
- Feb 11
- 3 min read
The U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) released its December 2025 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) today, showing a 0.6% decline from November 2025. This marks the first monthly drop after one month of growth. On a year-over-year basis, the index rose 0.4% compared to December 2024, indicating underlying stability despite the sequential pullback.
The Freight TSI, which tracks the volume of freight moved by for-hire transportation (trucking, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight), registered at 137.8 (seasonally adjusted, 2000=100). Revisions to prior data (November revised up slightly to 138.6) reflect ongoing concurrent seasonal adjustments.
This release, issued on a fixed OMB schedule, may see future revisions. The most current data is always available on the BTS TSI program page.
Key Drivers of the December Decline
BTS analysis attributes the drop to decreases in:
Air freight
Rail carloads
Pipeline volumes
Offset partially by increases in:
Rail intermodal
Trucking
Water transportation
These mixed mode performances highlight ongoing volatility in supply chains—air and pipeline softness may tie to seasonal factors or energy demand shifts, while trucking and intermodal gains suggest resilience in goods movement.
For context, the broader Passenger TSI fell 0.1% month-over-month (second consecutive decline) and 0.2% year-over-year, remaining 8.0% below its January 2020 peak. The Combined Freight + Passenger Index declined 0.4% MoM but rose 0.2% YoY.
Freight TSI in Economic Context
The table below places December's Freight TSI alongside other key indicators (seasonally adjusted where applicable; some unavailable due to federal appropriations lapse):
Economic Indicator | October | November | December | % Change (Dec from Nov) |
Freight Transportation Services Index | 136.8 | 138.6 | 137.8 | -0.6% |
FRB Industrial Production Index | 101.5 | 102.0 | 102.3 | +0.4% |
FRB Manufacturing (% change) | -0.6% | +0.4% | +0.2% | - |
FRB Mining (% change) | -0.7% | +1.7% | -0.7% | - |
FRB Utilities (% change) | +2.1% | -0.3% | +2.6% | - |
Housing Starts (thousands of units) | 1,246 | NA | NA | - |
Retail Sales: Retail Trade (millions USD) | 631,736 | 635,651 | NA | - |
Personal Income (billions chained 2017 $) | 20,592.5 | 20,612.3 | NA | - |
ISM Manufacturing Index (50+ = expansion) | 48.7 | 48.2 | 47.9 | -0.3 pp |
The slight Freight TSI dip contrasts with modest gains in industrial production and manufacturing, suggesting transportation output lagged broader activity in December. ISM's ongoing contraction (below 50) aligns with cautious freight signals.
Note: BTS estimated December air freight/passenger data one month ahead and used proxies for pipeline and waterborne volumes due to data gaps.
What This Means for Shippers and Carriers
The modest YoY increase (+0.4%) reinforces that freight volumes remain above prior-year levels despite monthly fluctuations—consistent with resilient consumer and manufacturing demand amid economic headwinds. Mode-specific shifts (e.g., trucking/intermodal strength) point to continued reliance on flexible road and combined transport solutions.
For LTL, truckload, and multimodal operators:
Watch air/rail/pipeline softness — Potential indicators of sector-specific slowdowns.
Capitalize on trucking gains — Position for sustained road freight demand.
Monitor revisions and January data (release March 11, 2026) for clearer trends.
At Gain Consulting LLC, we view the TSI as a leading indicator of economic cycles and freight capacity needs. December's dip tempers recent momentum but doesn't signal a broader downturn—pairing with positive ISM manufacturing rebound (52.6 in January) and LMI gains suggests choppy but building activity.
If these transportation metrics impact your planning—whether in capacity procurement, rate negotiations, or mode diversification—reach out to Gain Consulting LLC. We're here to turn BTS insights into actionable supply chain strategies.
Explore historical TSI data on the BTS Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data portal or FRED.
Follow us on X @gainconsulting_ for timely freight, economic, and logistics updates.
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