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GAIN CONSULTING

Trump Tariffs to Slash Global Container Volumes by 1% in 2025

  • Kelsea Ansfield
  • Apr 28
  • 5 min read


At Gain Consulting, we empower U.S. shippers with actionable insights to navigate the complexities of global supply chains. According to a recent FreightWaves report by Stuart Chirls on April 25, 2025, Drewry, a leading maritime research firm, forecasts a 1% decline in global container volumes for 2025 due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, marking only the third such downturn in Drewry’s history. This reduction equates to approximately 1.8 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), erasing about 10% of the 10 million TEU increase in global traffic from 2023 to 2024. Below, we analyze the impact of these tariffs on U.S. shippers, explore broader supply chain dynamics, and provide strategic recommendations to mitigate risks and seize opportunities in 2025.


Drewry’s Forecast: A Tariff-Driven Decline

Drewry’s projection of a 1% drop in global container volumes for 2025, equivalent to 1.8 million TEUs, is a significant shift from the robust growth of 183.2 million TEUs in 2024, which marked a 5.8% increase over 2023. The anticipated decline is directly tied to President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, including:

  • 10% baseline tariff on most imports, effective February 4, 2025.

  • 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, partially paused for 90 days but impacting non-energy goods.

  • 145% tariffs on Chinese imports (125% base rate plus 20% import tax), effective April 10, 2025, with additional 39% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors, and solar cells.

  • Elimination of the de minimis exemption for Chinese and Hong Kong goods, effective May 2, 2025, ending duty-free entry for shipments under $800.

These tariffs, announced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and Section 232/301 authorities, aim to boost domestic manufacturing but are disrupting global trade flows. FreightWaves notes that the 1% decline is a rare event, previously occurring only during the 2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, underscoring the severity of the tariff impact.

Key Takeaway: The projected loss of 1.8 million TEUs signals a contraction in global trade, driven by U.S. tariffs. Shippers must brace for reduced import volumes and higher costs.


U.S. Import Trends: A Pre-Tariff Surge and Looming Slowdown

The tariff announcements triggered a pre-tariff import rush in Q1 2025, as U.S. shippers frontloaded shipments to avoid duties. S&P Global Market Intelligence reported 2.75 million TEUs of U.S.-bound imports in March 2025, up 10.2% year-over-year, with consumer goods like home furnishings (+23.3%) and appliances (+14.4%) leading the surge. Journal of Commerce noted a corresponding spike in less-than-truckload (LTL) volumes near U.S.-Mexico border hubs like Laredo, TX, as shippers moved goods inland.

However, the tide is turning. FreightWaves reported a 64% drop in U.S. imports from China between March 24-31 and April 1-8, 2025, reflecting the chilling effect of 145% tariffs. Drewry’s data aligns with this, projecting a 4.4% decline in U.S. seaborne imports for 2025, with toys (-12.6%) and apparel (-9.5%) hit hardest. VT Markets forecasts a 15% full-year drop in U.S. cargo volumes, with May 2025 TEUs down 20.5% year-over-year, as booking cancellations leave ships departing China half-empty.

The de minimis exemption removal exacerbates this slowdown, increasing costs for e-commerce shipments. Bloomberg highlights new customs fees, such as FedEx’s $4.50 or 2% disbursement fee, adding to shipper expenses. DataDocks data shows a 41% month-over-month drop in freight volume bookings for April 2025, with the West (-52%) and Northwest (-61%) regions most affected, signaling a broader retreat from import activity.

Key Takeaway: The pre-tariff surge has given way to a sharp decline in imports, particularly from China, reducing container volumes and challenging shippers to adapt.


Broader Supply Chain Impacts

The tariff-driven volume decline is reshaping U.S. supply chains:

  1. Cost Increases: Tariffs are raising import costs, with S&P Global estimating 27-30% additional duties on consumer goods like clothing, toys, and smartphones. This could elevate retail prices, reducing consumer demand, which drives 70% of the U.S. economy (Walmart Corporate).

  2. Trade Flow Shifts: IATA notes that 87% of global trade remains unaffected by U.S. tariffs, creating opportunities for new markets like Southeast Asia and Mexico. CNBC reports that 61% of surveyed supply chain companies plan to relocate manufacturing to low-tariff regions, with Mexico and Vietnam as top destinations.

  3. Port and Modal Dynamics: BTS Transborder Freight Data shows $131.6 billion in U.S.-Canada-Mexico freight in February 2025, up 2.1%, with trucking ($86.6 billion, +3.9%) leading. Ports like Laredo, TX ($23.4 billion) and Detroit, MI ($8.1 billion) are critical for cross-border flows, while vessel freight (-22.9%) struggles.

  4. Freight Market Softness: Transport Topics highlights a mixed LTL market, with Knight-Swift’s 26.7% revenue growth contrasting TFI’s 39.6% profit decline. American Trucking Associations projects only 1.6% freight volume growth in 2025, reflecting a cautious market.

  5. E-Commerce Resilience: Despite tariff pressures, e-commerce demand remains strong. Digital Commerce 360 reports Walmart’s 16% online sales growth in Q4 2025, with its delivery expansion to 12 million households driving LTL and last-mile needs.

Key Takeaway: Tariffs are disrupting imports but boosting cross-border trade and e-commerce, requiring shippers to diversify and optimize logistics.


Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Shippers

To navigate the 1% global container volume drop and tariff challenges, U.S. shippers should adopt the following strategies:

  1. Diversify Supply Chains: Shift sourcing to Mexico or Southeast Asia to avoid 145% Chinese tariffs. BTS data shows $68.4 billion in U.S.-Mexico freight (+2.0%), with Laredo, TX, as a key hub. Leverage USMCA benefits for duty-free trade.

  2. Use Customs Bonded Warehouses: Defer duties for up to five years, as Bloomberg reports a sixfold increase in demand. Store high-value goods like computers/parts and appliances to manage cash flow amid tariff costs.

  3. Optimize Cross-Border Trucking: Partner with LTL carriers like Knight-Swift, which saw 24.2% shipment growth, for reliable capacity at ports like Laredo and Detroit. Journal of Commerce notes strong LTL demand near borders.

  4. Enhance E-Commerce Logistics: Capitalize on e-commerce growth by aligning with carriers supporting same-day delivery, as Walmart’s expansion sets new standards. Use geospatial technology (e.g., hexagonal grids) to optimize delivery zones.

  5. Mitigate Customs Costs: Prepare for the de minimis exemption loss with accurate documentation via CBP’s Automated Commercial Environment (ACE). Budget for new fees to avoid delays.

  6. Monitor Freight Rates: Track LTL and ocean rates using SONAR or Freightos, as Shanghai Containerized Freight Index shows a 46% drop in spot rates since January 2025. Negotiate flexible contracts to manage volatility.

  7. Invest in Automation: Follow Walmart’s lead with Symbotic robotics to streamline fulfillment, reducing costs as tariffs squeeze margins. Digital Commerce 360 notes automation as key in the Walmart-Amazon race.

  8. Plan for Demand Shifts: Anticipate a 15% cargo volume drop (VT Markets) by tightening inventories and focusing on resilient sectors like pharmaceuticals (+17.3%, S&P Global).

Key Takeaway: Diversification, bonded warehouses, and technology investments will help shippers weather the tariff-driven volume decline and maintain competitiveness.


Gain Consulting Can Help

At Gain Consulting, we transform supply chain challenges into opportunities for U.S. shippers.

The 1% global container volume decline presents challenges, but strategic planning can turn risks into opportunities. Contact Gain Consulting today to build a tariff-resilient supply chain for 2025.


Sources: FreightWaves, April 25, 2025; S&P Global Market Intelligence, April 15, 2025; Journal of Commerce, April 2025; Bloomberg, April 15, 2025; Digital Commerce 360, April 18, 202

 
 
 

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