Transborder Freight Declines in April 2025

At Gain Consulting, we empower U.S. shippers to navigate shifting trade dynamics with data-driven strategies that optimize costs and efficiency. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), transborder freight between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico in April 2025 totaled $126.3 billion, down 8.5% from April 2024, reflecting softening demand across most modes. This blog post analyzes the transborder freight trends, their implications for U.S. shippers, and actionable strategies to thrive in a challenging North American trade environment in 2025.

Understanding Transborder Freight Trends in April 2025

The BTS data highlights a significant decline in U.S. transborder freight with Canada and Mexico, with variations by mode and region:

• Total Freight: $126.3 billion, down 8.5% from April 2024.

• U.S.-Canada Freight: $56.6 billion, down 13.6%, driven by weaker demand for trucks, rail, and pipelines.

• U.S.-Mexico Freight: $69.7 billion, down 3.8%, showing relative resilience.

• Freight by Mode:

  • Trucks: $82.8 billion, down 8.6%, with $31.5 billion U.S.-Canada and $51.3 billion U.S.-Mexico.

  • Railways: $14.4 billion, down 20.9%, with $7.1 billion U.S.-Canada and $7.4 billion U.S.-Mexico.

  • Pipelines: $8.9 billion, down 5.2%, with $8.2 billion U.S.-Canada and $0.7 billion U.S.-Mexico.

  • Vessels: $7.3 billion, down 25.3%, with $2.2 billion U.S.-Canada and $5.1 billion U.S.-Mexico.

  • Air: $4.8 billion, up 3.7%, with $2.4 billion for both U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico.

• Key Ports:

  • U.S.-Canada Truck Ports: Detroit, MI ($7.2 billion), Port Huron, MI ($7.1 billion), Buffalo, NY ($6.3 billion).

  • U.S.-Mexico Truck Ports: Laredo, TX ($23.9 billion), El Paso-Ysleta, TX ($8.5 billion), Otay Mesa, CA ($4.8 billion).

  • U.S.-Canada Rail Ports: Detroit, MI ($2.2 billion), Port Huron, MI ($1.5 billion), Int’l Falls, MN ($0.9 billion).

  • U.S.-Mexico Rail Ports: Laredo, TX ($3.4 billion), Eagle Pass, TX ($2.6 billion), Nogales, AZ ($0.6 billion).

  • Pipeline Ports: Chicago, Port Huron, and Minneapolis (U.S.-Canada); El Paso, Hidalgo, and Laredo (U.S.-Mexico).

  • Water Ports: Boston, Arthur, and Portland (U.S.-Canada); Houston, Arthur, and Texas City (U.S.-Mexico).

• Top Commodities:

  • U.S.-Canada Trucks: Computers/parts ($5.3 billion), vehicles/parts ($4.0 billion), precious metals ($2.3 billion).

  • U.S.-Mexico Trucks: Computers/parts ($13.9 billion), electrical machinery ($11.0 billion), vehicles/parts ($6.6 billion).

  • U.S.-Canada Rail: Vehicles/parts ($2.6 billion), mineral fuel ($0.6 billion), plastics ($0.5 billion).

  • U.S.-Mexico Rail: Vehicles/parts ($3.5 billion), beverages/spirits ($0.6 billion), computer machinery ($0.5 billion).

Key Takeaway: Transborder freight fell 8.5% in April 2025, with significant declines in U.S.-Canada trade (13.6%) and most modes, except air (+3.7%), signaling a softening North American trade landscape.

Contextual Factors Shaping Transborder Freight Trends

Several economic and industry factors contribute to the freight declines and their impact on U.S. shippers:

1. Freight Recession: Ongoing weak demand, reflected in the -4.0 Philadelphia Fed Factory Index (Economy in Brief, June 23, 2025), and LTL shipment declines (6.8% for ODFL, 5% for XPO, CCJ, June 18, 2025) reduce cross-border volumes.

2. Tariff Uncertainty: Proposed 55% tariffs on Chinese imports and expiring relief on July 9 and August 14, 2025 (Journal of Commerce, June 24, 2025), shift focus to USMCA trade, but uncertainty dampens investment (Journal of Commerce, June 20, 2025).

3. E-Commerce Growth: 15% cross-border e-commerce growth in 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau) pressures shippers to maintain low-cost, fast delivery for 68% of consumers (FedEx 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report).

4. Carrier Capacity: Declines in truck (8.6%) and rail (20.9%) volumes, alongside labor shortages (BLS, May 2025), strain capacity at key ports like Laredo and Detroit.

5. Commodity Shifts: High-value goods like computers/parts and vehicles/parts dominate, reflecting demand for electronics and automotive supply chains despite overall declines.

Key Takeaway: A freight recession, tariff uncertainty, e-commerce demands, capacity constraints, and commodity shifts drive the transborder freight decline, challenging shippers.

Implications for U.S. Shippers

The April 2025 transborder freight decline has significant implications for U.S. shippers:

1. Reduced Freight Volumes: An 8.5% drop in total freight, particularly in U.S.-Canada (13.6%), signals lower demand, impacting LTL and TL planning at ports like Detroit and Laredo.

2. Cost Pressures: Declining volumes with stable pricing (5.4% LTL PPI increase, Trucking Dive, June 16, 2025) raise per-shipment costs, squeezing margins.

3. Capacity Constraints: Sharp rail (20.9%) and vessel (25.3%) declines may tighten capacity at key ports, risking delays, especially for vehicles/parts (DAT One, June 2025).

4. Inventory Risks: Lower freight volumes and tariff-driven buffers (Supply Chain Management Review, June 2025) could lead to overstocking or stockouts, disrupting just-in-time (JIT) strategies.

5. Customer Expectations: Potential delays at busy ports like Laredo ($23.9 billion) may impact 76% of shoppers expecting real-time updates (FedEx), particularly for e-commerce.

Key Takeaway: Shippers face reduced volumes, rising costs, capacity risks, inventory challenges, and customer expectation pressures in the transborder market.

Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Shippers

To navigate the transborder freight decline and optimize operations, Gain Consulting recommends the following strategies for U.S. shippers in 2025:

1. Optimize Cross-Border Freight:

   • Consolidate shipments at high-volume ports like Laredo ($23.9 billion) and Detroit ($7.2 billion) to maximize density and reduce costs under the new NMFC system (DC Velocity, June 19, 2025).

   • Use FreightSideKick to minimize accessorial fees for high-value commodities like computers/parts.

2. Negotiate Carrier Contracts:

   • Leverage stable LTL pricing to negotiate rates with carriers like ODFL or XPO, capping increases at 2-3% (Uber Freight Q2 Outlook, May 2025).

   • Partner with Gain Consulting’s carrier contract services to benchmark rates via TransImpact.

3. Diversify Transportation Modes:

   • Shift high-value goods like computers/parts to air freight (+3.7%) at ports like Chicago or El Paso to avoid rail and vessel bottlenecks (BTS).

   • Engage regional carriers like Estes for LTL capacity at Port Huron or Otay Mesa.

4. Leverage Technology:

   • Adopt C.H. Robinson’s AI agent for LTL classification to streamline tenders at busy ports (DC Velocity, June 19, 2025).

   • Implement TMS platforms like TransImpact to optimize routing for vehicles/parts, inspired by Amazon’s efficiency (24/7 Staff, June 2025).

5. Enhance Inventory Management:

   • Use AI-driven forecasting like Invent.ai (24/7 Staff) to balance buffer stocks for electronics and automotive goods, avoiding stockouts (Supply Chain Management Review).

   • Implement pool distribution to hubs near Laredo or Detroit to streamline inventory flow.

6. Monitor Tariff and Market Trends:

   • Track tariff updates (Journal of Commerce, June 24, 2025) to prepare for July 9 and August 14 deadlines, leveraging USMCA benefits (BTS).

   • Stay informed via CCJ and ASCM webinars for freight and commodity insights.

7. Improve Customer Communication:

   • Provide transparent delivery updates to meet 68% of shoppers’ transparency expectations (FedEx), using Gain Consulting’s branded tracking solutions.

   • Notify customers of potential delays due to port congestion or tariff impacts.

8. Prepare for Peak Season:

   • Secure capacity early for Q4 2025 at Laredo and Detroit, as import declines (8.1-21.8%, Global Port Tracker, June 2025) may tighten networks (DAT One).

   • Negotiate volume discounts with carriers to offset costs, using Gain Consulting’s expertise.

Key Takeaway: Shippers can mitigate transborder challenges by optimizing freight, negotiating contracts, diversifying modes, leveraging technology, enhancing inventory and communication, monitoring trends, and preparing for peak seasons.

How Gain Consulting Can Support Your Success

Gain Consulting is your trusted partner in navigating the 8.5% transborder freight decline in 2025. Our tailored solutions include:

• Freight Optimization: Consolidate shipments and secure capacity at key ports like Laredo and Detroit using AI tools (C.H. Robinson).

• Carrier Negotiation: Lock in competitive rates with ODFL, XPO, and regional carriers via TransImpact benchmarking.

• Mode Diversification: Shift to air freight or regional LTL to avoid rail and vessel constraints.

• Technology Integration: Implement TMS and dimensioning tools for NMFC compliance and efficiency.

• Inventory Management: Deploy AI forecasting and pool distribution to balance stock and costs.

• Customer Experience: Offer branded tracking and transparent communication to maintain trust.

• Market Insights: Provide real-time tariff and freight trend analysis for strategic planning.

The 8.5% transborder freight decline, with 13.6% drops in U.S.-Canada trade, signals challenges but also opportunities for optimization. Partner with Gain Consulting to build a resilient, cost-effective supply chain that thrives in 2025’s North American trade landscape.

Contact Gain Consulting today to future-proof your logistics strategy.

Sources: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, “Total Transborder Freight by Border in April 2025,” June 2025; CCJ, “Old Dominion, XPO, and Saia See Shipment Declines,” June 18, 2025; Journal of Commerce, “Changing US Tariffs,” June 20, 2025; Journal of Commerce, “Tariff-Driven Import Surge,” June 24, 2025; DC Velocity, “C.H. Robinson AI Agent,” June 19, 2025; Economy in Brief, “Philadelphia Fed Factory Index,” June 23, 2025; Trucking Dive, “LTL PPI Increase,” June 16, 2025; FedEx 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report, February 18, 2025; U.S. Census Bureau, E-Commerce Statistics, 2024; Supply Chain Management Review, Inventory Trends, June 2025; DAT One, Freight Market Trends, June 2025; Uber Freight Q2 Outlook, May 2025.