Retailers Rush to Beat Tariffs: July Set for Record Import Volumes at U.S. Ports

Retailers and importers are accelerating shipments in a clear bid to get ahead of potential new tariffs, driving import volumes to record levels this summer. According to the latest Global Port Tracker Report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, U.S. container ports are on track for an all-time high in July as businesses frontload inventory ahead of expected trade policy shifts.

Sharp Rise in Import Activity

Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth expected to continue through July. The nation’s major container ports handled 2.24 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in May — up 14.9% from the previous year and 10.1% from April. June is projected at 2.33 million TEUs (up 18.7% year-over-year), pushing the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million TEUs, a 2% increase over the same period in 2025.

July is forecast to hit a new monthly record of 2.47 million TEUs, surpassing the previous high of 2.4 million TEUs set in May 2022. This surge reflects proactive stockpiling as current global tariffs (implemented in February) are set to expire on July 24, with a new round of higher tariffs — particularly those related to forced labor — anticipated as early as August under the Trump administration.

“Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth likely continuing into July,” said Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates. “Much of this increase reflects frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases.”

Seasonal Pressures Amplify the Rush

The timing is critical. With the back-to-school selling season already underway and the winter holidays approaching, retailers are working to secure products and stabilize costs before new tariffs potentially drive prices higher.

Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, noted: “Retailers have been working to get products into the U.S. and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher.”

This frontloading has shifted the traditional peak shipping season earlier. What was once centered around October has moved forward in recent years due to tariff uncertainties, port labor issues, and other disruptions.

Looking Ahead: Post-July Slowdown Expected

After the July peak, imports are projected to ease:

• August: 2.22 million TEUs (down 4.5% year-over-year)

• September: 1.99 million TEUs (down 5.7%)

• October: 1.99 million TEUs (down 3.8%)

• November: 1.92 million TEUs (down 5.2%)

For context, total U.S. imports reached 25.4 million TEUs in 2025, slightly down 0.3% from 2024.

Strategic Implications for Businesses

This tariff-driven inventory surge highlights ongoing volatility in global supply chains. Companies that successfully frontloaded may benefit from better product availability and potentially lower landed costs in the short term. However, others could face higher prices, margin pressure, and inventory imbalances if demand doesn’t materialize as expected.

For manufacturers, distributors, and retailers, the coming months will test supply chain agility, forecasting accuracy, and pricing strategies. Businesses with strong visibility into port activity, tariff scenarios, and demand planning will be best positioned to navigate these shifts.

Gain Consulting provides expert guidance on supply chain resilience, trade risk assessment, and economic forecasting to help clients anticipate and adapt to policy-driven disruptions. Our team helps organizations optimize inventory strategies, mitigate cost increases, and build more robust global operations in an uncertain trade environment.

Stay informed and proactive. Contact Gain Consulting today to discuss how current trade dynamics and tariff developments could impact your business — and how we can help you build a more resilient strategy for 2026 and beyond.