November LMI Drops to 55.7: The Post-Holiday Hangover Is Already Starting

The Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) registered 55.7 in November, a decline of 1.7 points from October and the lowest reading since June 2024. While the index remains in expansion territory (above 50), the slowdown signals that the extraordinary inventory buildup of the past eleven months is finally unwinding.

A historic shift occurred in the warehousing sector: Warehousing Utilization fell into contraction at 47.5 — the first sub-50 reading in the nine-year history of the LMI. Respondents reported using less available warehouse space month-over-month for the first time on record.

Key November Readings

Metric	November	Change MoM	Interpretation
Overall LMI	55.7	-1.7	Expansion slowing
Inventory Levels	52.5	+3.0	Mild growth, driven entirely downstream
Warehousing Utilization	47.5	-9.0	First-ever contraction
Warehousing Capacity	54.8	+2.8	Space becoming more available
Warehousing Prices	62.9	-4.8	Robust expansion, but decelerating
Transportation Capacity	50.0	-4.5	Neutral — tightest since September 2024
Transportation Prices	64.9	+3.2	Fastest expansion since February 2025

Primary Drivers

• Inventory destocking has begun in earnest. Downstream (retail) respondents reported strong inventory growth (65.8) while upstream suppliers contracted (46.3), confirming the long-awaited transfer of tariff-frontloaded stock to retail shelves ahead of the holiday season.

• Warehousing markets are normalizing. Utilization collapsed early in the month as smaller firms offloaded inventory to larger partners. Capacity is now at its highest level since April, offering temporary relief after years of extreme tightness.

• Transportation remains the lone bright spot. Prices rose at the fastest pace since February, while capacity flattened at 50.0, producing the second-widest price-capacity spread since the 2022 freight recession.

12-Month Outlook

Survey respondents forecast an LMI of 62.9 one year from now — a respectable rebound — but the composition is revealing:

• Inventory Levels expected at only 56.7 (barely expanding)

• Transportation Prices projected at 78.4 (strong expansion)

• Warehousing Prices anticipated at 75.0 (continued elevation)

The consensus view: 2026 will feature significantly leaner inventories moving through a logistics environment that remains costly on both storage and transport.

Strategic Implications for 2026

1. Secure transportation capacity and pricing immediately. Rising prices and neutral capacity indicate limited leverage remains for shippers entering annual bid season.

2. Capitalize on near-term warehousing availability. Utilization contraction and slowing new construction suggest a window of improved space access in Q1–Q2 2026, even as unit pricing stays elevated.

3. Prepare for a potentially sharp post-holiday correction. Elevated consumer credit-card debt and pessimistic sentiment raise the risk of a January spending pullback, which would slow inventory velocity and exacerbate already-high carrying costs.

The extraordinary inventory cycle that defined 2025 is transitioning into a leaner, higher-cost operating environment for 2026.

Gain Consulting is currently assisting clients with post-peak scenario planning and 2026 transportation contract strategy. Organizations that act before year-end will capture the last remaining leverage in the market. For a confidential 2026 Logistics Risk Assessment tailored to your network, please contact us at your earliest convenience.

Source: Logistics Manager’s Index® – November 2025 (Arizona State University, Colorado State University, et al., in conjunction with CSCMP)