November 2025 LTL Executive Briefing: Demand Is Still Missing in Action

The verdict from the latest Armada/SMC3 data is blunt: freight demand remains sporadic, elusive, and stubbornly weak.

• Consumer and corporate sentiment are near recessionary levels

• The lower half of household spending is evaporating

• Inflation is masking flat-to-negative unit volumes

• $5+ trillion of “announced” investment is nowhere to be seen in actual freight

In short, the hoped-for 2026 freight rebound is still a forecast, not a reality.

The Hard Numbers

Sector	2025 Reality	2026 Outlook (Armada)
Manufacturing (IPMAN)	Flat-to-slight expansion	+2.2% (starts Q2)
Retail Sales	Nominal +3% / Real units -1%	Choppy, debt-driven
Non-Res Construction	Sluggish	Modest Q2 pickup
Residential Construction	Depressed sentiment	+5% (NAR optimistic)
Automotive	15.6M unit pace (down 5% YoY)	Weak until mid-year
Computers/Electronics	Strongest bright spot	Continued growth
E-Commerce	Cyber Week +7% (heavy discounting)	6% YoY, slowing

The Real Story: A “K-Shaped” Economy on Steroids

• Households >$75k and large corporations: still spending

• Everyone else: pulling back hard, burning credit cards just to keep up

• Result → freight is living off the top 40% of the income distribution

That’s why some shippers are “booming” while others can’t fill a trailer.

Three Things That Could Actually Move the Needle in 2026

1. Fed cuts in December + Q1 – the only reliable catalyst for sentiment and discretionary spending

2. Consumer tax breaks hitting bank accounts March/April – could spark a mini-surge

3. Residential construction finally turning – NAR now calls for +5% to +14% home sales; every new house = 7 truckloads

Everything else (tariffs, $5 trillion of “announced” factories, trade deals) is still vaporware in the freight data.

What LTL Shippers Must Do Before Year-End

1. Bid 2026 contracts aggressively – carriers have zero volume momentum; leverage is at a 3-year high

2. Stress-test Q1 2026 downside – assume retail units stay flat or negative after the credit-card hangover

3. Lock diesel hedges or floating formulas now – EIA just raised 2026 forecast to $3.50/gal retail

The freight market isn’t in recession — but it’s stuck in neutral while the bottom half of the economy runs on fumes.

At Gain Consulting, we’re helping clients turn this “K-shaped” reality into a competitive edge: securing lower 2026 LTL rates while carriers still have empty trailers and weak sentiment on their side.

The rebound everyone keeps promising for 2026 isn’t guaranteed. Your contract rates, however, can be.

Need a no-commitment 2026 LTL bid strategy before the calendar flips? Contact us today — the window is closing faster than demand is returning.

Source: Armada Corporate Intelligence / SMC3 Monthly LTL Executive Briefing – November 2025