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GAIN CONSULTING

LTL Price Gains in 2025

  • Kelsea Ansfield
  • 1 minute ago
  • 5 min read

At Gain Consulting, we’re committed to helping U.S. shippers navigate the evolving freight landscape with data-driven strategies. On June 16, 2025, Trucking Dive reported a 5.4% year-over-year increase in the long-distance less-than-truckload (LTL) producer price index (PPI) for May 2025, reaching 435.205, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).


Despite a lingering freight recession and economic pressures, this uptick signals pricing discipline among LTL carriers. This blog post analyzes the LTL PPI gains, their implications for U.S. shippers, and actionable strategies to optimize freight costs and operations in 2025.


Understanding the LTL Producer Price Index Increase

The LTL PPI, which tracks selling prices for carriers (not consumer costs), provides insight into the health of the freight market. Key details from the report include:

  • PPI Growth: The long-distance LTL PPI rose to 435.205 in May 2025, a 5.4% increase from May 2024, indicating higher carrier selling prices despite market challenges (BLS, June 2025).

  • Pricing Discipline: Jason Miller, interim chair of Michigan State University’s Department of Supply Chain Management, noted that “LTL pricing discipline appears to be holding,” suggesting carriers are maintaining rates rather than slashing prices to compete (Trucking Dive, June 16, 2025).

  • Market Context: The freight market faces a lingering recession, with Q1 2025 earnings for LTL carriers like Old Dominion and Saia showing depressed profits due to soft demand, inflation, and U.S. tariff policies (Supply Chain Dive, April 2025).

  • Comparative Trends: The dry van truckload (TL) PPI grew by only ~3% year-over-year, indicating weaker market recovery in TL compared to LTL (Trucking Dive).

  • Rate Outlook: General rate increases (GRIs) for LTL are projected at 2% to 3% in 2025, down from earlier forecasts of 4% to 5%, per Uber Freight’s Q2 outlook, reflecting cautious carrier strategies (Uber Freight, May 2025).

Key Takeaway: The 5.4% LTL PPI increase reflects stronger carrier pricing power in a challenging freight market, offering shippers opportunities to strategize amid rising costs.


Contextual Factors Driving LTL Price Gains

Several industry and economic factors contribute to the LTL PPI increase and shape its impact on U.S. shippers:

  1. Freight Recession: The freight market remains in a downturn, with soft demand and excess capacity depressing rates, particularly in TL (FreightWaves, June 2025). LTL’s pricing resilience suggests carriers like XPO Logistics are prioritizing profitability over volume.

  2. Inflation and Costs: Rising operational costs, including diesel at $3.50 per gallon (BTS, May 2025) and labor shortages (BLS, May 2025), push carriers to maintain or raise rates to offset expenses.

  3. U.S. Tariff Policies: New tariffs in 2025, particularly on imports from China, increase costs for shippers and carriers, contributing to pricing pressure (Supply Chain Dive, May 2025).

  4. LTL vs. TL Dynamics: Some shippers are shifting from LTL to TL to cut costs, but LTL’s 5.4% PPI growth outpaces TL’s 3%, indicating stronger pricing stability in LTL (Trucking Dive).

  5. Carrier Strategies: LTL carriers are implementing modest GRIs (2-3%) and focusing on high-margin freight, as seen in Yellow’s bankruptcy recovery efforts (FreightWaves, June 2025), supporting PPI gains.

Key Takeaway: Inflation, tariffs, a freight recession, and carrier pricing strategies drive LTL PPI increases, creating a complex environment for shippers.


Implications for U.S. Shippers

The 5.4% LTL PPI increase has significant implications for U.S. shippers, particularly those reliant on LTL for e-commerce, retail, or manufacturing:

  1. Higher Freight Costs: The 5.4% PPI rise translates to higher LTL rates, squeezing margins for shippers in a market where 68% of consumers demand low-cost shipping (FedEx 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report).

  2. Budgeting Challenges: With GRIs projected at 2-3%, shippers face unpredictable cost increases, complicating 2025 budgeting amid inflation and tariff impacts.

  3. Capacity Stability: LTL carriers’ pricing discipline suggests stable capacity, unlike TL’s volatility, but shippers may face tighter capacity during peak seasons like Q4 2025 (DAT One, June 2025).

  4. Customer Experience Pressure: Higher LTL costs could force shippers to pass fees to customers, risking satisfaction in a market where 76% of shoppers expect real-time delivery updates (FedEx).

  5. Mode Shift Considerations: Some shippers may explore TL or parcel alternatives to offset LTL costs, but TL’s weaker 3% PPI growth indicates less pricing relief (Trucking Dive).

Key Takeaway: Shippers face rising LTL costs, budgeting uncertainty, capacity dynamics, customer experience risks, and mode shift decisions due to the PPI increase.


Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Shippers

To navigate the 5.4% LTL PPI increase and optimize freight operations, Gain Consulting recommends the following strategies for U.S. shippers in 2025:

  1. Negotiate LTL Contracts:

    • Leverage the 5.4% PPI growth to negotiate favorable rates with carriers like XPO Logistics, Old Dominion, or Saia. Include caps on GRIs (e.g., 2-3%) to control costs.

    • Use Gain Consulting’s carrier contract services to benchmark rates via platforms like TransImpact.

  2. Optimize Freight Consolidation:

    • Combine smaller shipments into full LTL loads to reduce per-unit costs. Use FreightSideKick to identify consolidation opportunities and minimize accessorial fees.

    • Explore pool distribution to regional hubs to lower last-mile expenses.

  3. Diversify Carrier Portfolio:

    • Balance reliance on national LTL carriers with regional providers like Southeastern Freight Lines or Estes to secure competitive rates and capacity.

    • Use Freightos to compare LTL options and avoid peak-season constraints.

  4. Leverage Technology:

    • Implement a TMS to optimize routing, track rates, and analyze PPI trends in real-time.

    • Adopt AI-driven analytics like Gain Data Center

  5. Enhance Customer Transparency:

    • Communicate potential rate increases to customers via website FAQs or order confirmations to maintain trust (68% of shoppers value transparency, FedEx).

    • Offer branded tracking solutions through Gain Consulting to meet 76% of shoppers’ expectations for delivery updates.

  6. Monitor Market Trends:

    • Track PPI and freight market data via BLS, DAT One, or Uber Freight reports to anticipate rate changes and budget effectively.

    • Stay informed on tariff impacts through Supply Chain Dive to adjust sourcing or pricing strategies.

  7. Explore Mode Alternatives:

    • Evaluate TL or parcel options for cost savings, but account for TL’s weaker 3% PPI growth and capacity volatility (Trucking Dive).

    • Shift bulk freight to rail with carriers like BNSF to reduce reliance on LTL (BTS, May 2025).

  8. Prepare for Peak Season:

    • Secure LTL capacity early for Q4 2025, anticipating tighter markets. Negotiate volume discounts with carriers to offset PPI-driven costs.

    • Use Gain Consulting’s peak season planning to streamline operations.

Key Takeaway: Shippers can mitigate LTL cost increases by negotiating contracts, consolidating freight, diversifying carriers, leveraging technology, enhancing transparency, monitoring trends, exploring alternatives, and preparing for peak seasons.


How Gain Consulting Can Support Your Success

Gain Consulting is your trusted partner in navigating the 5.4% LTL PPI increase and other freight market challenges. Our tailored solutions empower U.S. shippers to optimize costs and operations:

  • Contract Negotiation: Secure competitive LTL rates and GRI caps through our carrier relationships and benchmarking tools.

  • Freight Optimization: Design consolidation and routing strategies to minimize costs

  • Carrier Diversification: Access our network of national and regional LTL carriers to ensure capacity and savings.

  • Technology Integration: Deploy AI analytics and TMS to track PPI trends, optimize routes, and enhance visibility.

  • Customer Experience: Implement branded tracking and communication tools to maintain trust amid rising costs.

  • Peak Season Planning: Streamline Q4 operations with capacity commitments and cost-saving strategies.


The 5.4% LTL PPI increase in May 2025 signals pricing discipline but challenges shippers with higher costs and market uncertainty. Partner with Gain Consulting to transform these challenges into opportunities for efficiency and growth.


Contact Gain Consulting today to build a resilient, cost-effective LTL strategy for 2025.



Sources: Trucking Dive, “LTL Producer Price Index Shows Some Increases,” June 16, 2025; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, June 2025; Uber Freight, Q2 2025 Outlook, May 2025; FedEx 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report, February 18, 2025; Supply Chain Dive, LTL Carrier Q1 Earnings, April 2025; FreightWaves, Freight Market Update, June 2025; Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Motor Fuel Prices, June 3, 2025; DAT One, Freight Market Trends, June 2025.

 
 
 
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