July 2026 Cass Freight Index Insights

After years of waiting for a clearer recovery signal in the freight market, July’s Cass Freight Index data suggests the long-anticipated turn may finally be taking shape—though volumes remain soft and the path forward is still uneven.

Key July 2026 Highlights

Index	Level	YoY Change	2-Year Stacked	MoM Change	MoM (SA*)
Cass Freight Index – Shipments	0.983	-4.8%	-11.4%	-2.6%	-2.2%
Cass Freight Index – Expenditures	3.518	+9.1%	+9.6%	-3.4%	-2.1%
Cass Truckload Linehaul Index	152.9	+8.6%	+11.2%	+2.3%	N/A

SA = seasonally adjusted

Shipments: Volumes Still Soft

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.8% year-over-year in July, following a 4.1% decline in June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, shipments dropped 2.2% month-over-month after a 2.9% decline the prior month.

Part of the softness stems from higher fuel prices, but the larger issue remains declining capacity. The Cass data are trucking-intensive, and rail intermodal continues to gain share from trucking this year, adding further pressure to the index.

Looking ahead, normal seasonal patterns suggest the shipments component could be down roughly 3% year-over-year in August.

Expenditures: Spending Growth Moderates

The expenditures component, which tracks total freight spending, rose 9.1% year-over-year to 3.52 in July. This marks a slowdown from the 11.2% gain recorded in June, driven primarily by softer volumes.

Seasonally adjusted, the index fell 2.1% month-over-month after eight consecutive months of gains, reflecting a 2.2% drop in shipments alongside only a slight increase in rates.

For context, expenditures surged 38% in 2021 and another 23% in 2022 before declining 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index edged down just 0.5%.

Truckload Linehaul: Rates Continue to Firm

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index climbed to 152.9 in July—up 2.3% month-over-month and 8.6% year-over-year. After a surprising 0.9% year-over-year decline in June, the sequential increase exceeded typical seasonal patterns. Given current spot market activity, further gains appear likely.

These shipper-sourced rates have not accelerated as sharply as some leading spot indicators, but they offer a solid view of the broader truckload market, which remains predominantly contract-driven. ACT Research estimates that similar rates at publicly traded truckload fleets rose approximately 8.7% year-over-year in the second quarter.

The index fell 10% in 2023 and another 3.4% in 2024 before turning positive with a 1.8% increase in 2025.

What This Means for Shippers and Carriers

July’s data paint a familiar but evolving picture: freight volumes remain under pressure, yet pricing power is steadily returning—particularly in the truckload sector. Capacity discipline continues to support rate strength even as overall shipment levels lag.

For shippers, the environment still favors careful capacity planning and proactive contract negotiations. For carriers, the combination of tightening capacity and firming linehaul rates provides a more constructive backdrop than in recent years, though volume recovery remains the missing piece.

At Gain Consulting, we help supply chain teams navigate these shifting dynamics—whether that means optimizing mode selection, refining procurement strategies, or aligning network design with evolving market conditions.