IATA’s Positive Air Cargo Outlook for 2025: Opportunities and Challenges

At Gain Consulting, we’re dedicated to equipping U.S. shippers with the insights needed to thrive in a dynamic global supply chain. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently shared an optimistic air cargo forecast at the 2025 World Cargo Symposium, projecting robust growth despite emerging tariff risks. With 72.5 million tonnes of freight expected to move by air in 2025, U.S. shippers have significant opportunities to capitalize on this momentum. However, geopolitical tensions and trade war uncertainties demand strategic planning. Here’s a deep dive into IATA’s findings and actionable steps for your business.

A Bright Air Cargo Forecast

IATA projects a 6% growth in global cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs) for 2025, signaling a strong rebound for air cargo despite a recent slowdown attributed to post-Christmas seasonality and February’s shorter calendar. Growth is expected across all regions, with the Middle East leading at 7.5%, followed by solid gains elsewhere. This follows a recovery trajectory, with air cargo revenues growing 5.4% year-over-year in 2025, surpassing 2019 levels after a post-pandemic dip.

Air cargo yields, a critical metric for profitability, are also stable. In 2024, yields rose 38% cumulatively since 2019, outpacing global inflation of 33% over the same period. While this growth is tempered by inflationary pressures, it underscores a resilient pricing environment. For U.S. shippers, this stability offers predictability in budgeting for high-value or time-sensitive shipments, such as electronics or pharmaceuticals.

Key Takeaway: The air cargo sector is poised for growth, driven by demand in e-commerce and global trade. U.S. shippers should leverage this opportunity to secure capacity early, especially on high-growth routes like those in the Middle East and Asia.

Economic Drivers Fueling Growth

Several positive economic indicators underpin IATA’s outlook, creating tailwinds for air cargo demand:

1. Strong Regional Growth: Asia and developing markets are driving global GDP growth, fueled by sectors like e-commerce. This surge in online shopping, particularly in markets like China and Southeast Asia, boosts demand for air cargo to deliver goods quickly to U.S. consumers.

2. Low Unemployment: Low employment levels globally translate to higher consumer spending power, increasing demand for goods shipped by air. For U.S. shippers, this means sustained demand for both business-to-business and direct-to-consumer shipments.

3. Declining Jet Fuel Prices: Jet fuel prices, which spiked in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have moderated, reducing operational costs for air carriers. Despite volatility, this trend helps keep air freight rates competitive compared to 2022 peaks.

4. Globalization and Longer Trade Routes: Increased cross-regional demand has extended the distances air cargo travels, amplifying the need for air transport. This is particularly relevant for U.S. shippers sourcing high-value goods from Asia or Europe.

Key Takeaway: Economic fundamentals—e-commerce, consumer spending, and lower fuel costs—support air cargo growth. U.S. shippers should align their strategies with these trends, prioritizing fast-moving consumer goods and optimizing routes to Asia.

Tariff Risks and Trade War Challenges

Despite the positive outlook, IATA’s senior economist, Maja Marciniak, highlighted growing risks from geopolitical tensions and an emerging global trade war, which are more pronounced than six months ago. The U.S., accounting for 13% of global imports, is at the center of tariff-related disruptions. While 87% of global trade remains unaffected by current tariffs, the uncertainty is already impacting air cargo.

Key challenges include:

• Business Caution: Tariff uncertainty is causing businesses to pause and reassess, slowing supply chain activity. U.S. shippers may face delays as suppliers and partners wait for clarity on tariff policies.

• Direct Tariff Impacts: Starting May 2, 2025, the U.S. de minimis exemption (allowing duty-free entry for shipments under $800) will no longer apply to goods from China and Hong Kong, with other countries to follow. This could increase costs for low-value e-commerce shipments, a key driver of air cargo growth.

• Trade Flow Shifts: Tariffs may redirect trade to new markets, creating opportunities but also complexities. For example, shippers may source from Southeast Asia or India to bypass Chinese tariffs, requiring adjustments to air routes and customs processes.

• Operational Risks: Potential impacts include reduced trade flows due to price hikes, customs processing delays, and rising aircraft prices, which could strain carrier profitability and capacity.

  
  

Marciniak emphasized that 72.5 million tonnes of air freight in 2025 present opportunities for new markets, as redirected trade flows open doors in regions less affected by tariffs. However, U.S. shippers must act swiftly to adapt.

Key Takeaway: Tariffs and trade war uncertainties pose real risks, from cost increases to customs delays. U.S. shippers should diversify sourcing and prepare for higher duties, especially for Chinese imports.

Sustainability: A Growing Priority

IATA underscored that a portion of air cargo revenue growth must be allocated to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, a critical goal for the industry. Investments in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), fleet modernization, and carbon offset programs are accelerating, but they add cost pressures. U.S. shippers should anticipate carriers passing some of these costs through surcharges or rate adjustments, particularly on high-traffic routes.

Key Takeaway: Sustainability is reshaping air cargo economics. Partner with carriers investing in green solutions to align with corporate ESG goals and mitigate future cost hikes.

Strategic Implications for U.S. Shippers

The air cargo market’s growth offers U.S. shippers a chance to strengthen their supply chains, but tariff risks demand proactive measures. Here’s how to position your business for success:

1. Secure Capacity Early: With 6% CTK growth and Middle East routes leading at 7.5%, book air cargo capacity now, especially for peak seasons or high-demand lanes like Asia-to-U.S.

2. Diversify Sourcing: Reduce reliance on Chinese imports by exploring suppliers in tariff-light regions like Vietnam, India, or Thailand. Gain Consulting can help map alternative trade routes to minimize costs and disruptions.

3. Optimize for De Minimis Changes: Prepare for the May 2, 2025, de minimis shift by auditing your sub-$800 shipments. Adjust pricing strategies or bundle shipments to manage new duties and fees (e.g., FedEx’s $4.50 or 2% disbursement fee).

4. Leverage Data-Driven Forecasting: Use IATA’s projections (e.g., 5.4% revenue growth, stable yields) to budget for air freight costs. Gain Consulting’s analytics can refine these forecasts for your specific needs.

5. Streamline Customs Processes: Anticipate delays as customs systems adapt to new tariff rules. Work with experienced freight forwarders to ensure compliance and expedite clearances.

6. Embrace Sustainability: Partner with carriers prioritizing SAF or low-emission fleets to meet customer and regulatory expectations, positioning your brand as environmentally responsible.

   
   

How Gain Consulting Can Help

At Gain Consulting, we specialize in turning market insights into actionable strategies for U.S. shippers. Whether you’re navigating tariff disruptions, optimizing air cargo routes, or aligning with sustainability goals, our team is here to drive efficiency and resilience. We offer:

• Custom Supply Chain Solutions: Tailored strategies to diversify sourcing and manage tariff impacts.

• Cost Optimization: Data-driven insights to control air freight costs amid rising yields and fees.

• Regulatory Expertise: Guidance on customs compliance for de minimis and tariff changes.

• Sustainability Planning: Support for integrating green practices into your supply chain.

The air cargo market is set for growth, but success requires agility. Contact Gain Consulting today to unlock the opportunities in IATA’s 2025 forecast and stay ahead of trade war challenges.

Source: IATA World Cargo Symposium, April 15, 2025