Elevated Oil and Diesel Prices Are Here to Stay Through 2026

The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (released September 9, 2026) confirms what many shippers are already feeling at the pump and on their freight invoices: energy costs are not easing anytime soon.

Oil Market Snapshot

Global oil prices averaged $91 per barrel in August—$7 higher than July. The primary driver is a sharp drawdown in inventories. The EIA estimates global oil stocks have fallen by roughly 400 million barrels so far this year, and they expect that decline to continue through the rest of 2026.

Middle East production is expected to gradually increase as more oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative export routes. However, the agency assumes some constraints will remain in place through year-end. As a result, regional output is projected to stay below pre-conflict levels until the second quarter of 2027.

The EIA now forecasts Brent crude to average around $90 per barrel for the second half of 2026. Looking further out, prices are expected to ease to an average of $74 per barrel in 2027 as production recovers and inventories begin to rebuild.

Diesel and Distillate Remain Especially Tight

The distillate market (which includes diesel) is under even more pressure. U.S. distillate inventories are forecast to fall below 100 million barrels in September and stay below the five-year low for much of 2027.

Global distillate production is expected to remain weaker than last year in the coming months. That tightness has already pushed domestic diesel prices higher and is encouraging more U.S. exports, which further limits available supply at home.

What This Means for Transportation Costs

For companies managing freight networks, the message is straightforward: elevated diesel prices are likely to persist through the rest of 2026 and into next year. Fuel surcharges will remain a meaningful cost factor, and any recovery in oil production is not expected to deliver near-term relief at the pump.

This environment reinforces the importance of separating unavoidable market-driven fuel increases from controllable freight expenses—poor consolidation, inaccurate data, accessorials, and reactive expediting. When fuel is this expensive, every preventable mile and every avoidable accessorial carries a higher price.

At GAIN Consulting, we are helping clients monitor these energy trends alongside capacity and rate movements so they can adjust routing, mode mix, and carrier strategies with clearer visibility. The companies that treat fuel as a manageable variable rather than a fixed surcharge tend to protect margins more effectively in periods like this.

We will continue tracking the monthly STEO updates and translating the numbers into practical implications for your network. If you would like a closer look at how current diesel forecasts are affecting your lanes, we are ready to dig in.