EIA Raises Its 2027 Diesel Forecast to $5.03 a Gallon

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released November 10, has a clear message for shippers: oil stays tight through the end of this year, and the diesel prices that flow into your fuel surcharges are now expected to be higher in 2027 than the agency forecast just a month ago.

The EIA finalized the inputs to this outlook on November 5, 2026. The forecast does not specifically account for market events after that day.

Oil Prices Stay Tight Through Year-End

Crude oil prices rose for a third consecutive month in October. The EIA points to falling global inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, constrained shipping capacity, and higher transportation costs as the factors tightening supply.

Under those conditions, the agency expects the Brent crude oil spot price to remain near $100 per barrel for the remainder of this year. It assumes most Middle East production outside Iran will return to pre-conflict averages by the middle of next year. As depleted global oil inventories build through 2027, the EIA forecasts the Brent spot price will gradually fall to an average of $77 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027.

That path still leaves several more months of high crude prices before any meaningful relief shows up.

U.S. Inventories Are the Lowest for October Since 2014

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell to 410 million barrels at the end of October, the lowest end-of-October level since 2014. The EIA says a large spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices encouraged crude oil exports and lowered crude oil imports. High crude oil inputs at U.S. refineries over the past several months also helped reduce inventories.

In the forecast, inventories remain below the five-year average through the middle of next year. Ongoing tightness in the global oil tanker market is expected to keep the Brent-WTI price spread wide, even as it narrows. Inventories then rise gradually, driven by higher net imports as that spread narrows and by U.S. crude oil production reaching a record 14.3 million barrels per day in 2027.

The Number That Matters Most for Shippers: Diesel

The EIA still expects the U.S. average retail price of gasoline and diesel to decline in 2027. That should not be read as a green light to loosen next year's freight budget. The agency raised both forecasts from last month's outlook.

In the new forecast, the U.S. retail diesel price averages $5.03 per gallon next year, 12% higher than the EIA forecast last month. Gasoline prices average $3.73 per gallon, 5% higher than last month. The agency now assumes global petroleum product markets will face continued supply constraints through the end of 2027. Those conditions are expected to support wider petroleum product crack spreads next year and keep U.S. refinery operations elevated.

For most distributors, diesel is the line that shows up on the freight invoice. Carrier fuel surcharges are typically tied to a published diesel index and reset on a short lag. If your 2027 plan is still built on last month's lower diesel outlook, it is already behind this forecast. Gasoline matters less for linehaul trucking, but it still affects parcel, van, and last-mile costs.

Natural Gas, Power, and Coal: A Mixed Picture

Not every energy market is moving the same way. A warm start to November is putting downward pressure on U.S. natural gas prices. The EIA now expects more natural gas in storage in the coming months than it had previously forecast, because mild weather reduced heating demand. It forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average $2.87 per million British thermal units from November through March, 16% lower than it expected last month.

That dip in U.S. prices stands in contrast to international natural gas prices, which have climbed to their highest levels since December 2022. The spread is supporting U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, with export terminals running near full capacity. The EIA forecasts U.S. LNG exports will rise to 19 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, up 26% from 2025, as new export capacity ramps up and existing facilities expand. That is a volume story for energy-related and export freight, even as domestic gas prices ease.

On electricity, the EIA expects the U.S. electric power sector to generate 4,390 billion kilowatthours in 2026, up 2.7% from 2025, driven by rising commercial-sector demand and increased cooling needs from warmer-than-average summer temperatures. Generation growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2027, with milder weather reducing residential demand. Most of the generation growth over the forecast period comes from utility-scale solar plants.

U.S. coal consumption falls by 7% to 419 million short tons in 2026, and by another 5% in 2027. Production decreases by just 2% this year, as rising exports partly offset the drop in consumption. Production falls by another 4% in 2027 as consumption decreases and exports remain flat. Even with flat exports, exports make up a rising share of U.S. coal disposition, supported by stronger demand from Europe and Asia and by China's commitment to purchase 10 million metric tons of U.S. coal in both 2027 and 2028. For shippers, the coal story is less about domestic burn and more about export and rail volumes holding up better than U.S. consumption.

What This Means for Freight Costs and 2027 Budgets

The practical takeaway is straightforward. Fuel relief is not arriving in the next few months, and next year's diesel average is now forecast well above what the EIA expected in October.

• Treat fuel surcharges as a line you manage, not a pass-through you ignore. Know which diesel index each carrier uses, how often the surcharge resets, and whether the formula on the invoice matches the contract.

• Rebuild 2027 freight budgets around the higher diesel forecast, not last month's outlook. The EIA still sees prices declining next year, but the starting point is higher than it was in the October outlook.

• Separate market-driven fuel costs from the costs you can control. When diesel is elevated, poor consolidation, avoidable accessorials, and billing errors all get more expensive.

• Watch energy-related lanes as well as general freight. Record U.S. crude production in 2027, rising LNG exports, and steady coal exports can support volume in some energy and bulk lanes even as other costs stay high.

• Keep a close eye on invoices through year-end and into early 2027. Fast-moving fuel markets are when surcharge mistakes and unapproved charges are easiest to miss.

The Bottom Line

Brent is expected to stay near $100 a barrel through the end of 2026, U.S. crude inventories are at their lowest end-of-October level since 2014, and the EIA has raised its 2027 diesel forecast 12% to $5.03 a gallon. Prices may ease later next year, with Brent averaging $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027, but that is not a reason to wait on your freight plan. The shippers who come out ahead will be the ones who budget for a higher diesel average, check fuel surcharge accuracy now, and keep the rest of their freight spend under tight review.

This is the kind of environment where a freight audit pays off. Gain Consulting helps distributors and other shippers control logistics costs through freight audit, invoice processing, claims management, and fuel surcharge review, with a guaranteed minimum 5% improvement. Reach out to our team if you want to walk through what this outlook means for your lanes and your 2027 budget.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (released November 10, 2026; forecast completed November 5, 2026), eia.gov/outlooks/steo.