The dry van freight market is sending mixed signals in early 2025, and the latest Dry Van Report from DAT Freight & Analytics, authored by Dean Croke on March 11, 2025, sheds light on the mounting pressures facing small carriers. For those operating in the long-haul spot market, February brought no relief: operating costs averaged $1.80 per mile, a figure that has remained stubbornly consistent over the past two years. At first glance, this stability might seem like a silver lining in an unpredictable industry. But dig a little deeper, and the story becomes far less rosy.
Rising Costs, Stagnant Rates: A Recipe for Margin Erosion
When we compare today’s operating costs to pre-pandemic levels, the numbers tell a stark tale. In 2019, carriers were spending roughly $0.18 less per mile to keep their trucks on the road. Fast forward to 2025, and that additional $0.18 per mile reflects a combination of higher fuel prices, increased maintenance costs, and rising wages—all expenses that have become the new normal in a post-pandemic world. Meanwhile, dry van linehaul rates have barely kept pace, inching up just $0.04 per mile above 2019 benchmarks.
This disconnect is more than a minor inconvenience—it’s a slow bleed on small carrier profitability. With costs climbing faster than revenue, margins are shrinking, leaving many operators scrambling to make ends meet. For small fleets and owner-operators, who often lack the negotiating power or scale of larger players, this imbalance is particularly acute. At Gain Consulting, we’re seeing firsthand how these dynamics are forcing carriers to rethink their strategies, from fuel efficiency initiatives to exploring contract freight as a buffer against spot market volatility.
Load Volumes and Ratios: A Market in Flux
On the demand side, the picture is a bit brighter—but not without its caveats. Load post volumes took a step back last week, declining 5% week-over-week after a period of steady activity. Even so, the market remains 15% ahead of where it stood this time last year, a sign that freight demand continues to outpace 2024 levels. The dry van load-to-truck ratio (LTR), which measures available loads against available trucks, ended the week essentially flat at 5.05. This equilibrium suggests a market that’s busy but not tipping into the kind of capacity crunch that drives rates skyward.
For shippers, this sustained load volume growth is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it reflects a resilient economy and steady demand for goods movement. On the other, it hints at potential risks down the road if carrier profitability continues to erode. Fewer profitable carriers could mean fewer trucks on the road, tightening capacity just when shippers need it most. For carriers, the 5.05 LTR offers a sliver of leverage—enough loads to keep wheels turning, but not enough to command significant rate increases in the spot market.
Navigating the Road Ahead with Gain Consulting
At Gain Consulting, we believe the current market underscores a universal truth in supply chain management: adaptability is king. For small carriers, the shrinking margin gap is a wake-up call to optimize every mile. That might mean investing in telematics to track fuel efficiency, renegotiating terms with shippers, or diversifying into contract freight for more predictable revenue streams. Our team has worked with carriers of all sizes to identify these opportunities, turning data into actionable plans that protect the bottom line.
For shippers, the story is about foresight. With load volumes holding strong and carrier costs under pressure, now’s the time to lock in capacity and build resilient partnerships. A carrier squeezed out of business today could be the missing truck you need tomorrow. At Gain Consulting, we specialize in helping shippers analyze market trends, forecast capacity needs, and secure the right partners to keep goods moving—on time and on budget.
Turning Data into Decisions
The DAT report is more than a snapshot—it’s a roadmap. The $1.80 per mile operating cost isn’t just a number; it’s a benchmark for carriers to measure their efficiency against. The $0.04 rate increase since 2019 isn’t just a statistic; it’s a signal that the market isn’t rewarding carriers for their rising costs. And the 5.05 load-to-truck ratio isn’t just a ratio; it’s a pulse check on supply and demand. At Gain Consulting, we take these insights and go further, tailoring them to your unique supply chain challenges.
Whether you’re a carrier looking to weather the margin storm or a shipper aiming to stay ahead of capacity shifts, we’re here to help. Our team brings decades of experience, cutting-edge analytics, and a commitment to results that move your business forward. Let’s turn today’s market challenges into tomorrow’s opportunities—together.
Have questions about how these trends affect your operation? Contact Gain Consulting today for a personalized consultation, and stay tuned for more supply chain insights.
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