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Decoding Truck Tonnage Trends: Strategic Insights for U.S. Shippers in 2025

Kelsea Ansfield


As we step into 2025, the logistics landscape has presented a mix of challenges and opportunities for shippers across the United States. Here at Gain Consulting, we are dedicated to providing you with the insights you need to steer your supply chain strategies effectively. Let’s delve into the latest developments in truck tonnage and freight activity:


Recent Trends in Truck Tonnage:


The American Trucking Associations (ATA) have recently released data showing a contraction in truck tonnage for December 2024, marking a significant shift since the early months of the previous year. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello highlighted that the Truck Tonnage Index experienced a decline of 1.8% in November, compounded by another drop in December, leading to a 2.9% decrease over the two months. This has brought tonnage levels to their lowest since January 2024.


The reasons behind this downturn are multifaceted. A key factor is the sluggish output from factories, which naturally reduces freight volumes. However, another layer to this issue is the expansion of private carrier fleets. As more companies invest in their own transportation solutions, less freight is left for for-hire carriers, creating a ripple effect on the market.


Spot and Contract Truckload Activity:


Despite these challenges, there are rays of hope in the truckload sector. According to DAT Solutions, both spot and contract truckload activities have ended 2024 on a relatively positive note. Mark Adamo from DAT noted that January 2025 has already shown signs of robust activity. This early momentum suggests that the traditional slowdown in February and early March might not be as pronounced this year.


Adamo further elaborated that if peak season activities could be extended into late January, the usual lull could be significantly shortened. This extension could mean that rates might only fall for a brief period before recovering as March brings back seasonal demand. This scenario could be particularly beneficial for shippers looking to stabilize their costs and logistics operations.


What This Means for U.S. Shippers:


  • Strategic Capacity Planning: With the growth of private fleets, for-hire carriers might face capacity constraints. Shippers should start planning early, potentially securing capacity through long-term contracts or strategic partnerships.

  • Rate Management: The current market signals suggest that rates could experience some volatility, but this might be short-lived. Shippers should be ready to adapt quickly, perhaps by securing rates when they are advantageous or by employing dynamic pricing strategies.

  • Seasonality and Market Timing: Leveraging the extended peak season could be key. Shippers might benefit from aligning their shipping schedules with these trends to minimize downtime and optimize cost management.

  • Inventory and Demand Forecasting: With an anticipated less severe dip in early 2025, shippers can adjust inventory levels more accurately. This could lead to better cash flow management and reduced storage costs.

  • Building Strong Carrier Relationships: In times of fluctuating capacity, having reliable carriers is invaluable. Gain Consulting can assist in forging these relationships, ensuring you have a network of carriers who can adapt to your changing needs.


DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of December, including:


  • the van TVI, at 260, was up 2.4% compared to November and up 12% annually;

  • the refrigerated TVI, at 220, was up 3% compared to November and up 20% annually;

  • the flatbed TVI, at 237, was down 5% compared to November and up 7% annually;

  • national average spot rates, for each three segments, were up, from November to December, with van up $0.09, at $2.11 per mile ($1.74 net fuel), reefer up $0.02, to $2.47 per mile ($2.06 net fuel), and flatbed up $0.02, to $2.39 ($1.94 net fuel) per mile; and

  • national average contract rates were mostly up, with the contract van rate, at $2.42 per mile, up $0.02 sequentially and down $0.06 annually, the reefer rate, at $2.74 per mile, flat sequentially and down $0.13 annually; and the contract flatbed rate, at $3.06 per mile, up $0.03 sequentially and down $0.05 annually


Looking Forward:


The first half of 2025 is poised to be a period where strategic foresight can make a significant difference. Here’s how shippers can prepare:


  • Stay Informed: Regular monitoring of manufacturing outputs, economic indicators, and market reports will help in anticipating demand shifts.

  • Flexible Contracting: Consider contracts that provide flexibility in terms of volume and rate adjustments to adapt to market changes.

  • Leverage Technology: Use advanced analytics and supply chain management tools for better visibility. Real-time data can be crucial in making informed decisions.

  • Sustainability and Efficiency: Look into eco-friendly logistics solutions that also offer cost savings, like optimizing routes or consolidating loads.


At Gain Consulting, we understand that each shipper's situation is unique. We offer tailored consulting services that delve into your specific operational challenges and opportunities. From strategic planning to daily operations, our team is here to ensure your supply chain not only survives but thrives in the current market conditions.


Gain Consulting invites you to partner with us to navigate the complexities of 2025's shipping landscape. Let's turn these insights into actionable strategies for your success.

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