Cardboard Box Demand Dips: A Recessionary Signal for Freight and Retail Logistics

At Gain Consulting, we keep a pulse on the logistics industry to help our clients navigate market shifts and optimize their operations. A recent report from DAT Freight & Analytics, published on September 9, 2025, by Dean Croke, highlights a surprising yet telling economic indicator: a decline in corrugated cardboard sales.

As an essential material for shipping consumer goods, this drop signals potential caution for the broader economy and retail demand. Here’s what this means for e-commerce merchants and logistics professionals, and how Gain Consulting can help you stay ahead.

Cardboard as an Economic Barometer

Corrugated cardboard, widely used for packaging and shipping consumer goods, is more than just a material—it’s a window into economic health. According to the DAT Dry Van Report, nearly half of surveyed box producers reported a decline in demand compared to three months ago. This downturn suggests weakening retail demand, which could point to a broader economic slowdown. As consumer spending drives much of the logistics industry, this trend raises important questions for businesses relying on efficient freight and supply chain operations.

The report underscores that cardboard demand often reflects consumer confidence and purchasing behavior. A decline in corrugated cardboard sales may indicate that retailers are anticipating reduced orders, which could ripple through the supply chain, affecting freight volumes, carrier rates, and logistics planning.

Implications for the Logistics Industry

For logistics professionals and e-commerce merchants, this decline in cardboard sales carries several implications:

• Reduced Freight Volumes: Lower retail demand could lead to fewer shipments, particularly in the dry van sector, which handles much of the nation’s consumer goods. This may result in softer demand for truckload services and increased competition for available loads.

• Cost Pressures: As freight volumes decline, carriers may face tighter margins, potentially leading to higher rates for shippers. Businesses will need to optimize their shipping strategies to maintain profitability.

• Inventory Adjustments: Retailers may scale back inventory to align with reduced consumer demand, impacting warehouse operations and last-mile delivery needs.

• Economic Uncertainty: The broader economic caution signaled by this trend may prompt businesses to reassess budgets, invest in cost-saving measures, and prioritize efficiency in their supply chains.

• 
  

How Gain Consulting Can Help

At Gain Consulting, our team is equipped to help businesses adapt to these market signals and maintain a competitive edge. Here’s how we can support you in navigating this period of economic caution:

• Optimized Freight Solutions: Our Truckload Managers, like Brandon Goodenough and Laura Jay, work with clients such as Core & Main, Medco, and ORS NASCO to secure cost-effective shipping solutions. We can help you adjust to lower freight volumes by identifying reliable carriers and negotiating competitive rates, even in a softening market.

• Data-Driven Decision Making: Our Analytics Manager, Erin Burch, and Director of Client Software Solutions, Dylan Cue, leverage tools like the Gain Data Center (GDC) to analyze shipping data and identify trends. By monitoring metrics like order volumes and carrier performance, we can help you anticipate and respond to shifts in demand.

• Invoice and Cost Management: Our Carrier Invoice Receivables team, including Andrea Mattos-Arevalo and Kellie Haeberlein, ensures accurate invoice processing and dispute resolution. This helps you control costs and avoid overpayments, especially critical when margins are tight.

• Strategic Planning: Our Account Managers, such as Megan Siebert and Sarah Wieberg, work closely with clients to streamline operations and adapt to changing market conditions. Whether it’s adjusting inventory strategies or optimizing last-mile delivery, we tailor solutions to your needs.

• Claims and Audit Expertise: Fred Pitts, our Audit and Cargo Claims Manager, ensures that any discrepancies or claims are resolved efficiently, protecting your bottom line as you navigate economic uncertainty.

  
  

Preparing for What’s Next

The decline in cardboard sales is a subtle but significant signal that businesses must remain agile in their logistics strategies. At Gain Consulting, we see this as an opportunity to refine operations, reduce costs, and position our clients for success, regardless of market conditions. By leveraging our expertise in freight management, data analytics, and client-specific solutions, we can help you mitigate the impact of reduced retail demand and prepare for future growth.

As Dean Croke notes in the DAT report, the corrugated cardboard market is a key indicator to watch. While the current decline suggests caution, proactive businesses can use this moment to optimize their supply chains and gain a competitive advantage.

Partner with Gain Consulting

Don’t let economic uncertainty slow your business down. At Gain Consulting, we’re here to help you navigate these challenges and turn market shifts into opportunities. Whether you’re looking to optimize shipping costs, streamline invoicing, or enhance your data-driven decision-making, our team is ready to support you.

Contact us today to discuss how we can help your business thrive in a changing logistics landscape. Reach out to our Director of Sales, Trey Hanks, or visit our website to learn more about our tailored solutions.

Source: DAT Freight & Analytics, “DAT Dry van report: Decline in cardboard sales signals economic caution,” Dean Croke, September 9, 2025.