Amazon’s LTL Ambitions: A Seismic Shift Looms for Retail Freight

The less-than-truckload (LTL) market has been a rare bright spot in a trucking industry battered by a prolonged freight recession. While truckload carriers have struggled with overcapacity and soft rates, LTL operators have leaned on steady retail volumes to weather the storm. But a new player is eyeing the field—and it’s not just any player. According to a March 17, 2025, report by Trucking Dive Senior Editor Colin Campbell, Amazon’s rumored pursuit of LTL capabilities could upend the sector, threatening to shuffle retail volumes in ways that ripple across the entire supply chain. At Gain Consulting, we’re breaking down what this means for shippers, carriers, and the broader freight ecosystem—and how you can prepare for the disruption ahead.

Amazon’s Move: A Threat Hiding in Plain Sight

Picture this: an Amazon Prime truck barrels down Interstate 40 in Nashville, Tennessee, its trailer packed not just with packages for final-mile delivery, but with consolidated LTL shipments. It’s a vision that’s inching closer to reality. Campbell’s report highlights growing industry buzz around Amazon’s interest in entering the LTL market, a move that’s grabbed carriers’ attention faster than a double-digit rate hike. This isn’t about Amazon acquiring a carrier outright (though speculation swirls around targets like FedEx Freight)—it’s about the retail giant potentially handling its own shipments in-house, a shift that could redraw the LTL landscape.

Amazon already moves a “staggering number of shipments” through existing LTL networks, as Scooter Sayers, Cubiscan’s director of business development for LTL solutions and founder of Sayers Logistics, noted in a LinkedIn message cited by Campbell. If Amazon pulls that volume into its own operations, it wouldn’t just be a minor adjustment—it’d be a seismic event. Retail freight has been the lifeline for LTL carriers over the past two years, propping up profitability amid stagnant industrial demand. Losing a chunk of that demand to Amazon could leave carriers scrambling, especially as the industry waits for a broader freight rate rebound following the post-COVID drought.

The Ripple Effect: Winners, Losers, and Market Shifts

Let’s unpack the stakes. If Amazon pursues an LTL acquisition or builds its own network to manage its shipments, the immediate winner would be the carrier (or carriers) it partners with. Imagine a windfall of Amazon’s volume flooding into a single operator’s system—think FedEx Freight, the market leader hauling twice the daily volume of its nearest rivals. But as Bobby Russell, EVP of MyCarriers, pointed out on the “Ship Talkers” podcast earlier this month, such a move could force that carrier to shed other freight to accommodate Amazon’s needs. The upside? That displaced volume would spill back into the market, giving other LTL players a chance to scoop it up. “I could see it being very beneficial for the LTL game,” Russell said, and he’s not wrong—competition could heat up, driving efficiency and innovation.

For the losers, though, the picture is bleaker. Sayers warns that even if Amazon never opens its LTL capacity to external customers, it’s a threat simply by pulling business away from incumbents over time. The truckload market could feel the tremors too—Amazon’s shift to LTL for its own retail freight might reduce demand for full truckload moves, especially in middle-mile segments where LTL could prove more cost-effective. At Gain Consulting, we’ve seen how interconnected these markets are; a shake-up in LTL rarely stays contained.

Why Now? Timing and Context

Amazon’s timing couldn’t be more telling. The trucking industry is at a crossroads: a freight recession that’s lingered since the COVID-induced boom has left carriers hungry for stability, while shippers wrestle with unpredictable costs and capacity. Retail volumes have been a lifeline, but they’re not invincible—especially with Amazon, the king of e-commerce, rethinking its logistics playbook. This isn’t the company’s first supply chain flex—since 2021, the industry has watched XPO pivot to a pure-play LTL carrier, Yellow Corp. collapse into bankruptcy, Knight-Swift dip into LTL, and FedEx Freight gear up for a spinoff. Amazon’s potential entry is just the latest chapter in a saga of disruption.

What sets Amazon apart is its scale and ambition. With a logistics arm already dominating last-mile delivery and dabbling in truckload via Amazon Freight, LTL feels like a natural next step. The company’s cross-dock network and data-driven efficiency give it a head start—imagine Amazon optimizing LTL consolidation with the same precision it applies to Prime deliveries. For an industry where incumbent carriers enjoy “great profits and strong pricing power,” as Sayers puts it, Amazon’s arrival could be the “good disruption” that shakes up complacency. “Seems ripe for a large player with new ways of doing things,” he adds—and who better than Amazon to rewrite the rules?

The FedEx Freight Question

One name keeps surfacing in the speculation: FedEx Freight. As the LTL market’s top dog, it’s a tantalizing target. An Amazon acquisition—or even a deep partnership—could turbocharge FedEx Freight’s volumes while sending shockwaves through competitors. But as Russell notes, integrating Amazon’s freight might mean shedding other business, creating opportunities for carriers like Old Dominion, Saia, or XPO to grab market share. At Gain Consulting, we’re skeptical of a full acquisition—Amazon’s history leans more toward building than buying—but a strategic alliance isn’t off the table. Either way, the mere possibility has the industry on edge.

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

At Gain Consulting, we’re not just watching the headlines—we’re translating them into action. Amazon’s LTL pursuit carries big implications for shippers and carriers alike:

For Shippers:

• Cost and Capacity Risks: If Amazon siphons off retail volume, LTL capacity could tighten for other shippers, driving rates up. Start stress-testing your freight budget now and explore multi-carrier strategies to stay flexible.

• Service Evolution: Amazon’s efficiency obsession could push LTL carriers to innovate—think faster transit times or better tracking. Demand these upgrades from your providers to keep pace.

• Diversification Matters: Relying too heavily on one carrier? Amazon’s move is a reminder to spread your freight across a broader network to mitigate disruption.

For Carriers:

• Protect Your Turf: If you’re an LTL operator, Amazon’s shadow looms large. Double down on customer relationships and operational efficiency to hold onto retail volume.

• Seize the Spillover: A FedEx Freight shake-up could flood the market with freight. Be ready to pounce on displaced volumes with competitive pricing and capacity.

• Innovate or Fade: Amazon’s tech-driven approach sets a new bar. Invest in automation, real-time visibility, and data analytics to stay in the game.

  
  

The Gain Consulting Edge

This isn’t uncharted territory for us. At Gain Consulting, we’ve guided clients through every major trucking disruption since 2021—from Yellow’s collapse to XPO’s pivot. Amazon’s LTL play is bigger, yes, but it’s not insurmountable. Our team brings decades of supply chain expertise, cutting-edge analytics, and a knack for turning threats into opportunities. Whether you’re a shipper bracing for rate volatility or a carrier eyeing market share, we’ve got the tools to keep you ahead.

The Road Ahead: Disruption as Opportunity

Amazon’s LTL pursuit isn’t a done deal—yet. But the mere prospect has the industry buzzing, and for good reason. If the retail giant pulls its shipments in-house, it could shrink the LTL pie for everyone else. If it opens its capacity to the market, it might redefine how freight moves. Either way, the status quo is on notice. Sayers calls it “good disruption,” and we agree—it’s a chance to rethink, retool, and rebuild a stronger supply chain.

The question is: are you ready? At Gain Consulting, we’re not waiting for Amazon to make its move—we’re helping our clients prepare today. From scenario planning to carrier negotiations, we’re here to turn uncertainty into advantage. Contact us to explore how Amazon’s LTL ambitions could impact your operation, and let’s craft a strategy that keeps you in the driver’s seat.

Stay tuned to Gain Consulting for more insights as this story unfolds—and for the expertise to navigate whatever comes next in the world of freight.