The Shifting Tide of U.S. Trade Policy: What Trump’s Latest Tariff Moves Mean for U.S. Shippers

At Gain Consulting, we’re committed to keeping U.S. shippers informed about the rapidly evolving landscape of international trade. On April 7, 2025, President Donald Trump delivered a pivotal announcement from the Oval Office that’s sending ripples through the shipping and logistics industry.

The U.S. is pausing most reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, offering a temporary reprieve for shippers dealing with goods from over 75 countries. At the same time, tariffs on imports from China are surging to a staggering 125%, intensifying an already heated trade war. Here’s what this means for U.S. shippers and how Gain Consulting can help you navigate the storm.

A Dual-Edged Trade Policy Shift

Effective immediately, the U.S. has implemented a two-tiered tariff structure. Imports from China now face a 125% duty—an escalation from the previous 104% total rate, which stacked earlier increases, including a 50% hike in February. Meanwhile, all other countries, including key trading partners like Mexico and Canada, will see a baseline 10% tariff for the next 90 days. Sector-specific tariffs, however, remain unchanged, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks during a White House press briefing on April 9.

The decision to pause most reciprocal tariffs stems from an influx of diplomatic outreach. President Trump noted that over 75 countries have contacted the White House in the past week to negotiate trade terms, with Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and India leading the pack. This temporary freeze offers a window for these nations to renegotiate trade deals, potentially reshaping global supply chains in the process.

China Trade War Heats Up

While the tariff pause signals a willingness to engage with much of the world, the U.S.-China trade relationship is moving in the opposite direction. China swiftly retaliated to the 125% tariff, imposing an 84% duty on U.S. exports effective April 10, 2025. This tit-for-tat escalation marks the latest chapter in a trade war that’s been simmering since early 2025.

World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned of dire consequences in a statement on April 9. “This tit-for-tat approach between the world’s two largest economies, which together account for roughly 3% of global trade, carries wider implications that could severely damage the global economic outlook,” she said. The WTO projects an 80% drop in U.S.-China merchandise trade, which could slash global real GDP by nearly 7%. For U.S. shippers, this signals a seismic shift in freight volumes, sourcing strategies, and cost structures.

Implications for U.S. Shippers

1. China Sourcing Under Pressure

   The 125% tariff on Chinese imports effectively prices many goods out of the U.S. market. Shippers relying on Chinese manufacturing will face skyrocketing costs, forcing a reevaluation of supply chains. Industries like electronics, apparel, and machinery—historically dependent on Chinese production—may see the most immediate disruption. Gain Consulting’s supply chain experts can help you identify alternative sourcing options and model the cost-benefit of nearshoring or reshoring.

2. Opportunities with Other Trade Partners

   The 10% baseline tariff on non-China imports, combined with the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, creates a temporary advantage for countries like Japan, Vietnam, and Mexico. Shippers can capitalize on this window to diversify suppliers and secure favorable terms before negotiations conclude. Our team at Gain Consulting specializes in market analysis to pinpoint emerging opportunities tailored to your freight needs.

3. Freight Volume Volatility

   The projected 80% decline in U.S.-China trade could lead to a sharp drop in transpacific shipping demand, potentially lowering rates on those lanes. Conversely, increased trade with other regions may strain capacity on alternative routes. Shippers must prepare for fluctuating freight rates and availability. Gain Consulting offers real-time logistics insights to optimize your routing and carrier partnerships.

4. Global Economic Uncertainty

   The WTO’s 7% global GDP reduction forecast underscores the broader stakes. A weaker global economy could dampen U.S. consumer demand, impacting shippers across all sectors. Proactive scenario planning is critical, and Gain Consulting’s data-driven strategies can help you stay ahead of the curve.

   
   

How Gain Consulting Can Support You

At Gain Consulting, we understand that tariff shifts like these aren’t just policy changes—they’re operational challenges. Our team of logistics and trade experts is ready to assist U.S. shippers with:

• Cost Analysis: Assess the impact of the 125% China tariff and 10% baseline rate on your bottom line.

• Supply Chain Optimization: Identify alternative suppliers and streamline your sourcing strategy.

• Freight Forecasting: Anticipate rate changes and capacity constraints across key trade lanes.

• Compliance Support: Navigate sector-specific tariffs and ensure regulatory adherence.

Looking Ahead

The next 90 days will be a critical period for U.S. shippers. The pause on reciprocal tariffs offers breathing room, but the escalating U.S.-China trade war signals tougher times ahead. President Trump’s Oval Office address on April 7 hinted at a broader vision: “We’re bringing trade back to America’s favor, and countries are lining up to deal with us.” For shippers, the challenge is translating that vision into actionable strategies.

Gain Consulting is here to bridge that gap. Contact us today to schedule a consultation and turn uncertainty into opportunity. Together, we’ll keep your supply chain moving—no matter where the trade winds blow.