Navigating U.S. Transportation Trends in 2025

At Gain Consulting, we empower U.S. shippers with actionable insights to optimize their supply chains in an ever-evolving logistics landscape. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) released its latest update to the National Transportation Statistics (NTS) on May 30, 2025, providing critical data on transportation trends across infrastructure, safety, economic impact, and energy use. This comprehensive dataset, first published in 1971 and now encompassing over 200 regularly updated tables, offers valuable insights into passenger-miles, freight ton-miles, waterborne freight, highway congestion, safety metrics, and energy consumption. For U.S. shippers, these updates highlight opportunities and challenges in 2025, from rising congestion costs to evolving freight patterns and energy efficiency mandates. This blog post analyzes the NTS data, its implications for shippers, and strategic recommendations to stay competitive.

Key Highlights from the May 2025 NTS Update

The BTS NTS update covers critical areas for shippers, including freight movement, infrastructure performance, safety, economic contributions, and energy use. Below, we summarize the updated tables and their relevance to U.S. shippers:

• Freight Movement:

  • U.S. Ton-Miles of Freight (Tables 1-50, 1-50M): Tracks the volume of freight moved across modes (e.g., truck, rail, water, air, pipeline), measured in ton-miles (one ton of freight moved one mile). This data reflects demand shifts and modal efficiency, critical for shippers optimizing carrier selection.

  • U.S. Waterborne Freight (Tables 1-56, 1-56M): Details domestic and foreign waterborne freight movements, including commodity types and routes. With waterborne freight accounting for significant bulk commodity transport, this is key for shippers in agriculture, energy, and manufacturing.

  • Tonnage of Top 50 U.S. Water Ports, Ranked by Total Tons (Table 1-57): Ranks ports by tonnage, highlighting hubs like the Port of South Louisiana and Houston for bulk and containerized freight. Port performance impacts shippers’ logistics planning and cost management.

• Infrastructure and Congestion:

  • Travel Time Index (Table 1-70): Measures the ratio of peak-period travel time to free-flow travel time, indicating congestion levels. Higher indices signal delays, increasing transit times and costs for truck freight.

  • Annual Highway Congestion Cost (Table 1-72): Quantifies the economic cost of congestion, including fuel, time, and productivity losses. Rising costs underscore the need for shippers to optimize routing and scheduling.

• Safety Metrics:

  • Transportation Fatalities by Mode (Table 2-1): Reports fatalities across modes (e.g., highway, rail, air, water), highlighting risks in freight transport, particularly trucking.

  • Injured Persons by Transportation Mode (Table 2-2): Tracks non-fatal injuries, informing safety compliance and risk management strategies.

  • Transportation-Related Occupational Fatalities (Table 2-7): Focuses on workplace deaths in transportation, critical for shippers managing driver safety and labor costs.

• Economic Impact:

  • National Transportation and Economic Trends (Table 3-10): Analyzes transportation’s contribution to GDP, employment, and consumer/government expenditures. This data helps shippers understand macroeconomic trends affecting freight demand.

• Energy Consumption and Efficiency:

  • Overview of U.S. Petroleum Production, Imports, Exports, and Consumption (Table 4-1): Provides context for fuel availability and costs, directly impacting trucking and shipping expenses.

  • Fuel Consumption by Mode (Tables 4-5, 4-5M) and Energy Consumption by Mode (Tables 4-6, 4-6M): Detail fuel use by trucks, rail, air, and waterborne vessels, guiding shippers toward energy-efficient modes.

  • Domestic Demand for Gasoline by Mode (Tables 4-7, 4-7M): Highlights gasoline reliance in trucking, a key cost driver.

  • Energy Intensity Metrics (Tables 4-20, 4-22, 4-25): Measure energy efficiency (e.g., BTUs per passenger-mile or ton-mile) for passenger modes, light-duty vehicles, and Class I railroads, offering insights into sustainable freight options.

Key Takeaway: The NTS update provides a wealth of data on freight movement, congestion, safety, economic trends, and energy use, enabling shippers to make informed decisions in a complex transportation environment.

Contextual Factors Shaping the 2025 Transportation Landscape

Several trends, informed by the NTS data and broader industry dynamics, are shaping the U.S. transportation sector and its implications for shippers:

1. Freight Demand and Modal Shifts: The U.S. Ton-Miles of Freight data reflects steady demand for trucking, which dominates freight movement, but also highlights growth in rail and waterborne freight for bulk commodities. The Freight Analysis Framework (FAF5.6.1) projects freight ton-miles to increase through 2050, driven by e-commerce and manufacturing. Shippers must balance cost, speed, and reliability when selecting modes.

2. Waterborne Freight and Port Performance: The U.S. Waterborne Freight and Top 50 U.S. Water Ports tables underscore the importance of ports like Houston and Long Beach for global trade. However, port congestion, as noted in BTS’s Port Performance Freight Statistics Program: 2025 Annual Report, remains a challenge, with planning time indices (PTI) near ports indicating delays. Shippers reliant on waterborne freight face risks of bottlenecks and higher costs.

3. Highway Congestion Costs: The Travel Time Index and Annual Highway Congestion Cost tables reveal rising congestion, particularly in urban areas. The Congressional Budget Office estimates congestion costs billions annually, driven by increased vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) and freight traffic. Trucking delays inflate delivery costs and disrupt just-in-time supply chains.

4. Safety and Regulatory Pressures: The Transportation Fatalities and Injured Persons tables highlight trucking’s high accident rates, with highway fatalities linked to speeding and alcohol involvement. Stricter regulations, such as NHTSA’s CAFE standards, aim to improve fuel efficiency and safety but may increase compliance costs for carriers, impacting shipping rates.

5. Energy and Sustainability Trends: The Energy Consumption and Energy Intensity tables show trucking’s heavy reliance on diesel, with rail and waterborne modes offering lower energy intensity per ton-mile. Rising fuel costs, as tracked by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., CO2 from trucking is eight times higher per ton-mile than rail) push shippers toward sustainable modes.

6. Economic Contributions: The National Transportation and Economic Trends table confirms transportation’s significant role in GDP and employment, with for-hire transportation contributing billions annually. However, labor shortages, as noted in BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and rising wages in transportation occupations challenge carrier capacity and costs.

Key Takeaway: U.S. shippers face a landscape of growing freight demand, persistent congestion, safety and regulatory pressures, sustainability mandates, and economic constraints, necessitating strategic planning to maintain efficiency.

Implications for U.S. Shippers

The NTS data reveals several implications for U.S. shippers, particularly those managing high-volume freight, e-commerce, or international supply chains:

1. Rising Freight Costs: Increased ton-miles of freight and highway congestion costs drive up trucking expenses, with congestion adding time and fuel costs. Shippers must account for these in budgeting and pricing strategies.

2. Port and Waterborne Freight Challenges: The U.S. Waterborne Freight and Top 50 U.S. Water Ports data highlight port inefficiencies, with high PTI values near major hubs. Shippers using ports like Los Angeles/Long Beach face delays, requiring contingency planning and diversified routing.

3. Safety Compliance Costs: The Transportation Fatalities and Injured Persons data underscore the need for robust safety programs, particularly for trucking. Non-compliance with regulations like FMCSA’s hours-of-service rules could lead to fines, while safer carriers may charge premium rates.

4. Energy Cost Volatility: The Fuel Consumption and Petroleum Production tables indicate reliance on volatile diesel markets. Shippers must monitor EIA fuel price trends and explore fuel-efficient modes like rail or waterborne transport to hedge costs.

5. Sustainability Pressures: The Energy Intensity data shows rail and waterborne freight’s lower environmental impact, aligning with corporate sustainability goals. Shippers face increasing pressure from customers and regulators to reduce emissions, as transportation accounts for two-fifths of U.S. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

6. Labor and Capacity Constraints: The National Transportation and Economic Trends data, combined with BLS labor statistics, signals ongoing driver shortages and rising wages. Shippers may experience capacity tightness, particularly during peak seasons, necessitating early carrier commitments.

Key Takeaway: U.S. shippers must navigate rising costs, port delays, safety regulations, fuel volatility, sustainability demands, and labor constraints, leveraging NTS data to inform strategic decisions.

Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Shippers

To address the challenges and opportunities outlined in the NTS update, Gain Consulting recommends the following strategies for U.S. shippers in 2025:

1. Optimize Modal Selection: Use U.S. Ton-Miles of Freight data to balance trucking, rail, and waterborne modes. For bulk commodities, leverage rail or waterborne freight to reduce costs and emissions, as rail’s energy intensity is significantly lower than trucking. Engage carriers like BNSF or Norfolk Southern for rail options.

2. Mitigate Port Congestion: Analyze Tonnage of Top 50 U.S. Water Ports and BTS port performance data to diversify port usage. Consider secondary ports like Savannah or Norfolk to avoid bottlenecks at Los Angeles/Long Beach. Implement real-time tracking tools to manage delays.

3. Combat Congestion Costs: Use Travel Time Index and Annual Highway Congestion Cost data to optimize routing. Employ Transportation Management Systems (TMS) like FreightSideKick to identify low-congestion routes and schedule deliveries during off-peak hours. Consolidate shipments to reduce VMT and fuel costs.

4. Enhance Safety Compliance: Align with Transportation Fatalities and Injured Persons data to prioritize carriers with strong safety records. Implement driver training programs and telematics to monitor compliance with FMCSA regulations, reducing liability and costs.

5. Manage Fuel Cost Volatility: Monitor Fuel Consumption and EIA diesel price trends to budget for fuel surcharges. Negotiate fuel surcharge caps in carrier contracts and explore intermodal solutions (e.g., truck-to-rail) to leverage rail’s lower fuel intensity.

6. Advance Sustainability Goals: Use Energy Intensity data to shift toward rail or waterborne freight, which emit less CO2 per ton-mile. Partner with carriers adopting electric or hybrid trucks, such as FedEx Freight or XPO Logistics, to meet ESG targets.

7. Secure Capacity Amid Labor Shortages: Leverage National Transportation and Economic Trends to anticipate capacity constraints. Book capacity early for peak seasons (e.g., Q4 2025) and diversify carriers, including regional providers like Saia or Old Dominion, to ensure reliability.

8. Leverage Data and Technology: Integrate NTS data with platforms like DAT One or TransImpact to analyze freight trends, port performance, and congestion. Use AI-driven analytics to forecast costs and optimize supply chain decisions.

Key Takeaway: Shippers can mitigate 2025 challenges by optimizing modal choices, diversifying ports, combating congestion, ensuring safety compliance, managing fuel costs, advancing sustainability, securing capacity, and leveraging data-driven tools.

How Gain Consulting Can Help

Gain Consulting is your trusted partner in navigating the complexities of the U.S. transportation landscape in 2025. Our tailored solutions empower shippers to thrive amid rising costs and evolving trends:

• Freight Strategy Optimization: Develop multimodal strategies using NTS data to balance cost, speed, and sustainability, integrating trucking, rail, and waterborne options.

• Safety and Compliance Support: Implement safety programs and carrier vetting to align with regulatory requirements and reduce risks.

• Fuel and Cost Management: Negotiate carrier contracts with fuel surcharge protections and leverage analytics to forecast expenses.

• Sustainability Solutions: Build low-emission supply chains by prioritizing rail and waterborne freight, aligning with corporate ESG goals.

• Capacity Planning: Secure carrier commitments and diversify portfolios to ensure reliability during peak seasons.

• Data-Driven Insights: Integrate NTS and industry data into TMS platforms for real-time decision-making and cost optimization.

The May 2025 NTS update from BTS provides a critical lens into freight movement, congestion, safety, economic trends, and energy use, offering U.S. shippers a roadmap to navigate 2025’s challenges. By partnering with Gain Consulting, you can transform these insights into actionable strategies that drive efficiency and profitability. Contact Gain Consulting today to build a resilient, future-ready supply chain.

Sources: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics Update, May 30, 2025; Freight Analysis Framework (FAF5.6.1), March 31, 2025; Port Performance Freight Statistics Program: 2025 Annual Report; Congressional Budget Office, Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the Transportation Sector, December 2022; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Diesel Sales Prices, May 2025; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, May 2025.