Navigating the Shifting Parcel Delivery Landscape

The U.S. parcel delivery market is undergoing a seismic shift, and shippers need to stay ahead of the curve to optimize their logistics strategies. According to a recent report from ShipMatrix Inc., traditional giants FedEx and UPS are losing ground to private fleets operated by major retailers like Walmart and Amazon, as well as nimble regional couriers. This transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for U.S. shippers looking to streamline operations and cut costs. At Gain Consulting, we’re here to help you navigate these changes and make informed decisions for your business.

The Big Picture: Record Volumes, Shifting Players

In 2024, U.S. parcel volumes hit an all-time high of 23.8 billion packages, a 4% increase from the previous year and a staggering 50% jump since 2019. Total parcel delivery revenues grew 4.1% to $188 billion, averaging $8 per parcel. ShipMatrix projects this growth will continue at a compound annual rate of 4%, reaching 26.8 billion parcels by 2027. However, the report highlights a critical trend: most of this growth will be captured by private retail networks and regional carriers, leaving FedEx, UPS, and even USPS with flat or negative growth.

What does this mean for shippers? The days of relying solely on legacy carriers are fading. Retail giants like Walmart and Amazon, alongside smaller players like OnTrac, Better Trucks, and UniUni, are reshaping the last-mile delivery landscape with speed, flexibility, and cost efficiency.

Retail Giants Flex Their Muscle

Walmart and Amazon are leading the charge, leveraging their massive scale and in-house delivery fleets to capture market share. Amazon delivered an impressive 6.1 billion packages in 2024, up from just 1.7 billion in 2019, while Walmart and other retailers saw their combined volumes soar 44% year-over-year to 2.3 billion packages—nearly quadrupling since 2019. By contrast, UPS held steady at 4.8 billion parcels, and FedEx saw a slight dip to 3.4 billion.

Walmart’s success is particularly noteworthy. The retailer’s CEO, Doug McMillon, recently shared that its ability to fulfill e-commerce orders directly from stores and clubs has driven significant growth. Walmart’s same-day delivery now reaches 93% of U.S. households, up from 76% two years ago. This in-store fulfillment model not only boosts efficiency but also helped Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce business turn its first profit—a milestone that signals a new era of viability for retail-driven logistics.

Amazon, meanwhile, has been steadily reducing its reliance on legacy carriers. Five years ago, it dropped FedEx as a carrier, and UPS recently announced plans to cut Amazon volumes by 50% over the next 18 months to focus on higher-margin freight. These moves underscore a broader trend: retailers are building their own logistics networks to control costs, speed up delivery, and enhance customer satisfaction.

The Rise of Regional Couriers

Beyond the retail giants, regional couriers like OnTrac, Jitsu, Veho, and UniUni are carving out a niche in last-mile delivery. These smaller carriers thrive on flexibility and lower operating costs, making them attractive partners for shippers seeking alternatives to traditional carriers. In 2024, this group (excluding Amazon, FedEx, and USPS) saw revenue growth of 48%, reaching $13 billion. Their ability to serve e-commerce demand efficiently is reshaping expectations for speed and affordability.

What This Means for U.S. Shippers

As a U.S. shipper, you’re operating in a dynamic market where competition is driving innovation but also complexity. Here’s how you can adapt to these changes:

Diversify Your Carrier Mix
Relying solely on FedEx or UPS may no longer be the most cost-effective or reliable option. Incorporating private fleets like Walmart’s or regional couriers can help you access faster delivery times and potentially lower rates. For example, partnering with a carrier like UniUni, recently added to Shipium’s network, could open new doors for agile last-mile solutions.
Leverage Retail Fulfillment Networks
Walmart’s in-store fulfillment model shows how retailers are blurring the lines between physical stores and e-commerce hubs. If your business aligns with Walmart or similar retailers, explore opportunities to tap into their delivery networks for faster, more localized service.
Optimize for Cost and Speed
With an average of 70 parcels delivered per adult in 2024 (that’s 1.8 per week!), consumer expectations for quick, affordable delivery are higher than ever. Evaluate your shipping strategy to balance cost and speed, using data-driven insights to choose carriers that align with your customers’ needs.
Stay Agile Amid Growth
The projected 26.8 billion parcels by 2027 signal continued e-commerce expansion. Retailers like Walmart expect online sales to drive 50% of their growth over the next five years. Shippers must stay flexible, testing new carriers and technologies to keep pace with this demand.

How Gain Consulting Can Help

At Gain Consulting, we specialize in helping U.S. shippers navigate complex logistics challenges. Whether you’re looking to diversify your carrier partnerships, optimize shipping costs, or integrate with retail fulfillment networks, our team provides tailored strategies to boost efficiency and profitability. We’ll analyze your current operations, identify opportunities to leverage emerging carriers, and ensure your logistics align with the evolving demands of e-commerce.

The parcel delivery market is no longer dominated by a few players—it’s a vibrant ecosystem where innovation drives success. Let Gain Consulting guide you through this transformation, so you can deliver faster, smarter, and more cost-effectively.

Ready to rethink your shipping strategy? Contact Gain Consulting today to explore how we can help you stay ahead in the evolving world of parcel delivery.