Navigating Freight and Passenger Trends: Insights from the August 2025 TSI Report

The U.S. transportation sector serves as a critical barometer for economic activity, reflecting shifts in commerce, consumer behavior, and industrial output. The latest Transportation Services Index (TSI) from the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), released for August 2025, reveals a mixed landscape: a slight decline in freight volumes juxtaposed against a rebound in passenger travel. At Gain Consulting, we leverage these insights to empower shippers, 3PLs, and carriers with strategies to navigate this dynamic market.

Freight TSI: A Slight Dip Amid Modal Shifts

The Freight TSI, which measures the volume of goods transported by for-hire carriers (including trucking, rail, pipelines, waterborne, and air freight), fell 0.1% in August 2025 from July, halting a one-month growth streak. Year-over-year, the index remained unchanged from August 2024, signaling a freight market still wrestling with post-pandemic recovery challenges, tariffs, and uneven demand.

The decline stemmed from reductions in air freight, rail carloads, rail intermodal, and pipeline transportation. However, trucking and waterborne shipping saw gains, with trucking reaching its highest level since July 2023. This resilience underscores trucking's role as a flexible backbone for shippers facing volatile conditions. The August Freight TSI stood at 138.9, down slightly from a revised 139.0 in July.

Passenger TSI: A Rebound in Travel

The Passenger TSI, tracking volumes across local transit, intercity rail, and air transportation, rose 0.6% in August from July, marking its first increase after two months of declines. From August 2024 to August 2025, the index grew by 1.4%, driven by gains in air passengers, rail passengers, and transit ridership. Despite this uptick, the index remains 7.7% below its January 2020 peak and below its 2025 high, reflecting cautious recovery amid economic uncertainties.

The August Passenger TSI was 125.6 (revised from prior estimates), signaling improving consumer mobility but sensitivity to factors like inflation and hybrid work trends.

Combined Index and Economic Context

The Combined Freight and Passenger TSI increased 0.2% from July to August and 0.5% year-over-year, offering a balanced view of transportation's economic role. To contextualize these trends, the table below compares TSI with key economic indicators, highlighting correlations that inform logistics strategies.

Economic Indicator	June 2025	July 2025	August 2025
Freight Transportation Services Index	137.0	139.0	138.9
Percent Change	0.0%	1.5%	-0.1%
Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Industrial Production Index	104.2	103.8	103.9
Percent Change	0.5%	-0.4%	0.1%
FRB Manufacturing (percent change)	0.2%	-0.1%	0.2%
FRB Mining (percent change)	0.4%	-1.5%	0.9%
FRB Utilities (percent change)	2.6%	-0.7%	-2.0%
Housing Starts (thousands of units)	1,382.0	1,429.0	1,307.0
Percent Change	7.8%	3.4%	-8.5%
Retail Sales: Retail Trade (millions of nominal dollars)	624,146.0	628,620.0	NA
Percent Change	1.0%	0.7%	NA
Personal Income (billions of chained 2017 dollars)	20,576.0	20,625.7	20,646.5
Percent Change	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index (50+ = expansion)	49.0	48.0	48.7
Percentage Point Change	0.5	-1.0	0.7

Note: Data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Retail sales for August are not yet available. Source: BTS and related economic reports.

The freight dip aligns with a sharp -8.5% drop in housing starts, suggesting weaker construction-related shipments. Meanwhile, modest gains in industrial production and personal income bolster trucking's strength, and the ISM Manufacturing Index's uptick (to 48.7) hints at stabilizing manufacturing activity.

Strategic Implications for Logistics Leaders

The TSI serves as a leading economic indicator, guiding logistics decision-making. The freight market's flat trajectory calls for diversified modal strategies, with a focus on trucking's reliability. Passenger growth signals potential e-commerce demand as consumer confidence improves, offering opportunities for retail logistics optimization.

Gain Consulting recommends the following actions:

• Optimize Modal Mix: Capitalize on trucking's strength while mitigating risks in rail and air freight.

• Leverage Data-Driven Forecasting: Use TSI trends alongside real-time analytics to anticipate demand shifts.

• Prioritize Sustainability: Align freight operations with passenger sector efficiencies to meet ESG objectives.

• Strengthen Partnerships: Build resilient shipper-3PL alliances, as outlined in our recent series on strategic collaboration.

With BTS set to release July 2025 TSI data on November 13, 2025, staying proactive is critical. Explore historical trends via BTS's Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data or the FRED database.

Ready to transform TSI insights into competitive advantages?

Contact Gain Consulting to strengthen your logistics strategy in this evolving market.