LTL Shipment Declines in May

At Gain Consulting, we empower U.S. shippers to navigate freight market challenges with data-driven strategies that optimize costs and efficiency.

On June 18, 2025, CCJ reported that leading less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), XPO Logistics, and Saia experienced year-over-year shipment declines in May, with tonnage drops of 6.8%, 5%, and 0.4%, respectively. These declines signal a softening freight demand environment, impacting shippers reliant on LTL services. This blog post analyzes the implications of these trends and offers actionable strategies to help U.S. shippers thrive in 2025.

Understanding LTL Shipment Declines in May 2025

The CCJ report highlights a challenging period for major LTL carriers, reflecting broader market dynamics:

• Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL): Tonnage fell 6.8% year-over-year in May, indicating reduced shipment volumes amid soft demand (CCJ, June 18, 2025).

• XPO Logistics: Experienced a 5% decline in shipments per day, signaling cautious shipper activity and lower freight volumes.

• Saia: Reported a modest 0.4% drop, showing relative resilience but still reflecting market slowdown.

• Market Context: The declines align with a lingering freight recession, as noted in FreightWaves (June 2025), with excess capacity and weakened demand impacting carrier performance.

• Pricing Stability: Despite shipment declines, LTL carriers maintained pricing discipline, with a 5.4% LTL PPI increase in May (Trucking Dive, June 16, 2025), suggesting focus on profitability over volume.

Key Takeaway: ODFL, XPO, and Saia’s shipment declines reflect soft freight demand, pressuring shippers to optimize operations in a challenging LTL market.

Contextual Factors Driving Freight Market Trends

Several economic and industry factors contribute to the LTL shipment declines and their impact on U.S. shippers:

1. Freight Recession: Ongoing weak demand, as seen in the -4.0 Philadelphia Fed Factory Index (Economy in Brief, June 23, 2025), limits manufacturing output, reducing LTL volumes.

2. Tariff Uncertainty: Proposed 55% tariffs on Chinese imports (Journal of Commerce, June 20, 2025) disrupt supply chains, prompting shippers to hold back on freight movements.

3. E-Commerce Pressure: Despite 15% cross-border e-commerce growth in 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau), 68% of consumers demand low-cost shipping (FedEx 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report), squeezing shipper margins.

4. Carrier Strategies: LTL carriers like ODFL and XPO prioritize high-margin freight, as seen in modest 2-3% general rate increases (Uber Freight Q2 Outlook, May 2025), impacting shipment volumes.

5. Labor and Capacity: Labor shortages (BLS, May 2025) and rising unfilled orders (Economy in Brief) strain carrier capacity, potentially delaying shipments.

Key Takeaway: A freight recession, tariff uncertainty, e-commerce demands, carrier pricing strategies, and labor constraints drive LTL shipment declines, creating a complex environment for shippers.

Implications for U.S. Shippers

The shipment declines reported by ODFL, XPO, and Saia have significant implications for U.S. shippers:

1. Reduced Freight Volumes: Declines of 6.8% (ODFL), 5% (XPO), and 0.4% (Saia) signal lower LTL demand, potentially leading to tighter capacity during peak seasons like Q4 2025 (DAT One, June 2025).

2. Rising Costs: Stable LTL pricing (5.4% PPI increase) amidst declining volumes increases per-shipment costs, challenging shippers to maintain profitability.

3. Supply Chain Delays: Lower shipment volumes and labor shortages may extend lead times, risking delays for 76% of shoppers expecting real-time updates (FedEx).

4. Inventory Risks: Soft demand and tariff-driven buffers (Supply Chain Management Review, June 2025) could lead to overstocking or stockouts, disrupting just-in-time (JIT) strategies.

5. Customer Experience Pressure: Higher costs and potential delays may force shippers to pass fees to customers, impacting satisfaction in a competitive market.

Key Takeaway: Shippers face reduced volumes, rising costs, potential delays, inventory challenges, and customer experience risks due to LTL shipment declines.

Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Shippers

To navigate soft freight demand and optimize LTL operations, Gain Consulting recommends the following strategies for U.S. shippers in 2025:

1. Optimize LTL Shipments:

   • Consolidate shipments to maximize pallet density and lower freight classes, reducing costs under the new NMFC system (DC Velocity, June 19, 2025).

   • Use FreightSideKick to identify consolidation opportunities and minimize accessorial fees.

2. Negotiate Carrier Contracts:

   • Leverage ODFL, XPO, and Saia’s pricing discipline to negotiate favorable rates, capping general rate increases at 2-3% (Uber Freight).

   • Partner with Gain Consulting’s carrier contract services to benchmark rates via TransImpact.

3. Diversify Carrier Options:

   • Balance reliance on ODFL, XPO, and Saia with regional carriers like Estes or Southeastern Freight Lines to secure capacity (BTS, May 2025).

   • Use Freightos to compare LTL rates and availability, avoiding peak-season constraints (DAT One).

4. Leverage Technology:

   • Adopt C.H. Robinson’s AI agent for LTL classification to streamline tenders and ensure NMFC compliance (DC Velocity, June 19, 2025).

   • Implement TMS platforms like TransImpact to optimize routing and track costs in real-time, inspired by Amazon’s logistics efficiency (24/7 Staff, June 2025).

5. Enhance Inventory Management:

   • Use AI-driven forecasting to balance buffer stocks and avoid stockouts amid soft demand and tariff pressures (Journal of Commerce).

   • Implement pool distribution to regional hubs to optimize inventory placement.

6. Improve Customer Communication:

   • Provide transparent delivery updates to meet 68% of shoppers’ transparency expectations (FedEx), using Gain Consulting’s branded tracking solutions.

   • Notify customers of potential delays due to lower LTL volumes or tariff impacts.

7. Monitor Market Trends:

   • Track shipment data and tariff updates (Journal of Commerce, June 20, 2025) to adjust strategies before July 9 and August 14, 2025, tariff deadlines.

   • Stay informed via CCJ and ASCM webinars for real-time freight market insights.

8. Prepare for Peak Season:

   • Secure LTL capacity early for Q4 2025, as shipment declines may tighten networks (DAT One).

   • Negotiate volume discounts with carriers to offset rising costs, using Gain Consulting’s expertise.

Key Takeaway: Shippers can mitigate LTL challenges by optimizing shipments, negotiating contracts, diversifying carriers, leveraging technology, enhancing inventory and communication, monitoring trends, and preparing for peak seasons.

The 6.8%, 5%, and 0.4% shipment declines reported by ODFL, XPO, and Saia in May 2025 highlight a softening freight market, but strategic planning can turn challenges into opportunities.

Partner with Gain Consulting to build a resilient, cost-effective LTL strategy that thrives in 2025. Contact Gain Consulting today to optimize your supply chain.

Sources: CCJ, “Old Dominion, XPO, and Saia See Shipment Declines as Freight Demand Softens,” June 18, 2025; Trucking Dive, “LTL PPI Increase,” June 16, 2025; Journal of Commerce, “Changing US Tariffs,” June 20, 2025; DC Velocity, “C.H. Robinson AI Agent,” June 19, 2025; Economy in Brief, “Philadelphia Fed Factory Index,” June 23, 2025; FedEx 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report, February 18, 2025; U.S. Census Bureau, E-Commerce Statistics, 2024; Supply Chain Management Review, Inventory Trends, June 2025; Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Motor Fuel Prices, May 2025; DAT One, Freight Market Trends, June 2025; Uber Freight Q2 Outlook, May 2025.