LTL Carriers Face Mixed November Results Amid Mounting Market Pressures

Less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers reported divergent performance in November 2025, underscoring the persistent softness in the broader freight market. While some carriers experienced significant tonnage declines, others posted modest gains—highlighting the volatility driven by economic headwinds, post-tariff inventory adjustments, and seasonal factors.

Volume Softness Dominates, With Notable Exceptions

Major LTL players saw varied tonnage results:

• Old Dominion Freight Line (CCJ Top 250, No. 9) recorded the sharpest drop, with tonnage down 10% year-over-year (y/y).

• XPO (No. 10) followed with a 5.4% decline.

• In contrast, Saia Inc. (No. 18) posted a slight 1.8% increase, while ArcBest (No. 19) achieved a modest 3% gain.

Weight per shipment trends were largely flat or declining across the industry, reflecting cautious shipper behavior in a challenging environment.

Old Dominion's decline stemmed from a 9.4% drop in LTL shipments per day and a 0.6% decrease in weight per shipment. XPO cited a 2.2% reduction in shipments per day and a 3.2% fall in weight per shipment.

On the positive side, Saia and ArcBest reversed October's weakness. Saia's LTL shipments per workday rose 2.6% (after a 3.4% decline in October), while ArcBest saw a 3% increase in shipments per day (up from 0.6% the prior month).

Old Dominion CEO Marty Freeman attributed the volume softness to "ongoing softness in the domestic economy." Despite the challenges, he emphasized the company's focus on service excellence and yield management.

Pricing Discipline Holds, But Margins Under Pressure

Carriers demonstrated rational pricing behavior amid the downturn. Old Dominion reported a strong 5.9% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight quarter-to-date, supported by best-in-class service that bolsters yield initiatives.

ArcBest, however, noted an approximate 2% decline in revenue per hundredweight (both including and excluding fuel). The company anticipates sequential margin deterioration of about 400 basis points in Q4, driven by broader market softness and three fewer workdays compared to Q3.

In an SEC filing, ArcBest described the pricing environment as "rational," signaling that carriers are resisting deep discounts despite volume pressures.

Broader Context from the Cass Freight Index

These LTL results align with the November Cass Freight Index, which showed a 7.6% y/y decline in shipments—worse than the year-to-date trend.

ACT Research Vice President and Senior Analyst Tim Denoyer noted that truckload volumes, which had briefly improved in Q3 ahead of the October 5 import tariff deadline, softened again in Q4 as pre-tariff inventories are depleted.

The market's volatility is evident in carriers like Saia and ArcBest, which shifted from October declines to November gains as tariff-related dynamics unfold.

Outlook: Pent-Up Demand vs. Tariff Headwinds

Early holiday consumer spending has proven resilient, potentially building pent-up demand. However, Denoyer cautions that ongoing tariffs are likely to drive prices higher and erode affordability in 2026.

Implications for Shippers and Carriers

November's mixed LTL performance reflects a freight recession characterized by economic caution, inventory drawdowns, and selective volume gains among disciplined operators. Strong service and yield management remain critical differentiators in this environment.

At Gain Consulting, we help clients navigate these fluctuating conditions through data-driven procurement strategies, carrier negotiations, and modal optimization. Whether you're a shipper seeking cost stability or a carrier refining yield tactics, our insights can position you for success in 2026.

Contact Gain Consulting today for a customized analysis of how these trends impact your freight operations.

Sources: Company reports, SEC filings, Cass Freight Index November 2025 edition, and related analyses.