top of page

GAIN CONSULTING

June 2025 Freight TSI: Insights for Navigating a Cooling Freight Market

  • Kelsea Ansfield
  • Aug 15
  • 3 min read

ree

The June 2025 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), released by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on August 14, 2025, reveals a slight decline in freight activity, signaling a pause in the market’s recent momentum.


At Gain Consulting, we’re analyzing the implications of this data to help shippers and logistics providers adapt to a shifting freight landscape and prepare for future opportunities.


Key Findings from the June 2025 Freight TSI

The Freight TSI, which measures the volume of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.4% from May to June 2025, marking its first decline after two consecutive months of growth. Year-over-year, the index dropped 0.5% from June 2024, reflecting ongoing challenges in the freight sector. In contrast, the Passenger TSI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 0.6% year-over-year, reaching a new 2025 high but remaining 7.3% below its January 2020 peak. The Combined Freight and Passenger Index saw a modest decline of 0.2% month-over-month and year-over-year.


Drivers of the Freight TSI Decline

The June decrease in the Freight TSI was driven by seasonally adjusted declines in:

  • Rail Intermodal

  • Rail Carloads

  • Trucking

Meanwhile, air freight and water transportation saw increases, and pipeline transportation remained unchanged. These mixed results highlight a fragmented freight market, with tariff uncertainties and softening demand impacting key modes like trucking and rail.


Economic Context

The Freight TSI’s decline occurred against a backdrop of mixed economic signals:

  • The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production Index rose 0.3% in June, with manufacturing up 0.1% and utilities up 2.8%, though mining fell 0.3%.

  • Housing Starts increased 4.6%, indicating resilience in construction.

  • Personal Income grew 0.3%, supporting consumer spending potential.

  • The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index rose to 49 (up 0.5), but remained below 50, signaling continued contraction in manufacturing.

These indicators suggest a cautious economic environment, with freight activity reflecting broader uncertainties around tariffs and industrial demand.


Implications for Shippers and 3PLs

The June 2025 Freight TSI’s decline aligns with other recent reports, such as the July 2025 Cass Freight Index, which noted a 1.8% month-over-month drop in shipments and a 6.9% year-over-year decline, driven by tariff-related disruptions. However, optimism persists, with carriers and brokers anticipating a market recovery in the next six months, as reported by DC Velocity on August 8, 2025. This suggests a potential rebound as tariff policies stabilize and capacity tightens.


Key challenges and opportunities include:

  • Softening Freight Demand: The decline in trucking and rail volumes indicates a need for shippers to optimize load planning and consolidate shipments to maintain cost efficiency.

  • Rising Costs: Despite lower volumes, freight rates are climbing, as seen in the Cass Freight Index’s 7.9% year-over-year rate increase, driven by a shift to truckload and rising fuel costs.

  • Intermodal Opportunities: The launch of Union Pacific’s Inland Empire-to-Chicago intermodal service on September 3, 2025, offers a cost-effective alternative to trucking for West Coast-to-Midwest shipments, potentially offsetting rate pressures.

  • Data-Driven Decisions: The BTS’s new freight mobility data, leveraging GPS from over 350,000 trucks, provides valuable insights into county-to-county travel times, enabling shippers to optimize routing and reduce transit costs.


Strategic Recommendations

To navigate the cooling freight market and prepare for a potential recovery, Gain Consulting recommends the following:

  • Optimize Freight Operations: Consolidate shipments and explore intermodal options, such as Union Pacific’s new service, to reduce costs in a soft demand environment.

  • Leverage Data Insights: Use BTS’s freight mobility data and transportation management systems (TMS) to identify efficient routes and mitigate delays, especially in high-traffic lanes.

  • Secure Carrier Capacity: With a recovery anticipated in the next six months, lock in carrier contracts now to ensure capacity and favorable rates as demand rebounds.

  • Monitor Tariff Impacts: Stay agile in response to tariff developments, diversifying carrier partnerships and supply chain strategies to buffer against cost increases.


How Gain Consulting Can Help

At Gain Consulting, we specialize in helping businesses thrive in dynamic freight markets. Our team can analyze your shipping data, negotiate carrier contracts, and integrate advanced data tools to optimize your supply chain. Whether you’re adapting to declining freight volumes, exploring intermodal solutions, or preparing for a market upturn, we’re here to deliver tailored strategies that drive efficiency and savings.


Looking Ahead

The June 2025 Freight TSI’s decline reflects a challenging freight environment, but with carriers and brokers expecting a recovery by early 2026, now is the time to act strategically. By leveraging new intermodal options, data-driven insights, and proactive planning, businesses can position themselves for success.


Contact Gain Consulting today to learn how we can help you navigate these changes and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the freight market.


Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, August 14, 2025, BTS 50-25

 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page