The U.S. freight transportation landscape kicked off 2025 with a slight stumble but a steady pulse. According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), released on March 12, 2025, the Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) for January 2025 dropped 0.4% from December 2024. Despite this month-over-month dip, the index posted a solid 1.9% increase compared to January 2024, signaling resilience amid mixed economic signals.
At Gain Consulting, we’re committed to helping U.S. shippers and supply chain leaders decode these trends and turn data into actionable strategies. Let’s unpack the January 2025 Freight TSI, explore what’s driving the numbers, and outline how your business can adapt to the shifting freight environment.
The Numbers: A Closer Look at January 2025
The Freight TSI, which measures the volume of freight moved by the for-hire transportation industry (think trucking, rail, air freight, pipelines, and inland waterways), stood at 137.1 in January 2025. That’s a modest decline from December’s revised figure of 137.6, marking the third decrease in the past five months. Yet, the year-over-year gain of 1.9% from January 2024’s 134.5 reflects a broader upward trend since the pandemic lows of April 2020, when the index bottomed out at 124.3.
For context, January’s level remains 3.0% below the all-time high of 141.4, hit in August 2019, and 2.2% below the recent peak of 140.2 in August 2024. Still, the index has climbed 10.3% since its April 2020 low and is up 11.4% over the past decade from January 2015’s 123.1. These figures highlight a freight sector that’s weathered significant disruptions and continues to grow—albeit with some month-to-month volatility.
What drove the January decline? The BTS attributes it to seasonally adjusted decreases in air freight, rail carload, rail intermodal, and trucking, offset partially by gains in waterborne and pipeline shipments. This mixed performance mirrors broader economic indicators, which we’ll dive into next.
The Bigger Picture: Freight TSI and the Economy
The Freight TSI doesn’t operate in a vacuum—it’s a bellwether for economic activity. BTS research has long shown a clear link between TSI trends and economic cycles, making it a valuable tool for understanding where the U.S. economy might be headed. January’s data aligns with a patchwork of economic signals:
Industrial Production: The Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production Index rose 0.5% in January, buoyed by a 7.2% surge in utilities. However, manufacturing dipped 0.1%, and mining fell 1.2%, reflecting uneven industrial momentum.
Housing Starts: A sharp 9.8% decline in housing starts suggests a cooling construction sector, which could dampen demand for freight-intensive materials like lumber and steel.
Personal Income: A 0.9% increase in personal income points to robust consumer spending power, a key driver of freight demand.
ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index climbed 1.7 points to 50.9, crossing the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction—a positive sign for industrial freight.
These mixed indicators paint a picture of an economy in transition—neither booming nor stalling, but navigating headwinds and tailwinds alike. For shippers, this means freight demand may remain choppy in the near term, with pockets of opportunity emerging alongside areas of caution.
Trends and Historical Context
January’s 0.4% drop isn’t an outlier—it’s part of a recent pattern. The Freight TSI has declined in three of the past five months, leaving it 2.2% below its August 2024 peak. Yet, the index has risen 3.3% since August 2021 and 44.2% from its recession-era low of 95.1 in April 2009.
Over the past five years (since January 2020), it’s up a modest 0.8%, reflecting steady, if unspectacular, growth through the pandemic recovery.
Looking back at the past decade:
10-Year Gain: Up 11.4% from January 2015.
5-Year Gain: Up 0.8% from January 2020.
1-Year Gain: Up 1.9% from January 2024.
These long-term trends underscore the freight industry’s adaptability. While January 2025 didn’t match the highs of 2019 or 2024, it’s well above pre-pandemic and recession benchmarks—a testament to the sector’s ability to rebound and stabilize.
What’s Next for U.S. Shippers?
For supply chain professionals, the January Freight TSI offers both insights and imperatives. Here’s what it means for your operations:
Mode-Specific Challenges
Declines in trucking, rail, and air freight suggest capacity constraints may be easing in these modes—potentially lowering rates in the short term. However, gains in waterborne and pipeline shipments hint at shifting demand patterns, possibly tied to energy or bulk goods. Are you optimizing your modal mix to capitalize on these shifts?
Economic Uncertainty
With manufacturing and mining softening but consumer spending holding firm, freight demand could remain uneven. Businesses reliant on industrial goods may see slower volumes, while consumer-driven sectors like retail could sustain momentum. How prepared is your supply chain for this divergence?
Seasonal Adjustments
The TSI’s seasonal adjustment smooths out regular fluctuations, but January’s drop still reflects a post-holiday slowdown. As February data rolls out on April 10, 2025, we’ll get a clearer picture of whether this is a blip or a trend. Are you planning for volatility in Q1?
Long-Term Resilience
The 1.9% year-over-year growth and 10.3% rise since April 2020 show the freight sector’s staying power. Even with monthly dips, the trajectory is upward—suggesting opportunities for strategic investments in capacity, technology, or partnerships.
How Gain Consulting Can Help
At Gain Consulting, we don’t just analyze data—we turn it into results. The January 2025 Freight TSI reveals a freight market at a crossroads, and our team is here to guide you through it. Whether you’re a shipper, carrier, or logistics provider, we offer tailored solutions to keep your supply chain humming:
Freight Optimization: We’ll analyze your shipping patterns against TSI trends to identify cost-saving opportunities across modes—whether it’s leveraging cheaper trucking rates or tapping into growing waterborne capacity.
Economic Forecasting: Our experts can align your logistics strategy with economic indicators like the ISM and Industrial Production Index, helping you anticipate demand shifts.
Capacity Planning: From securing space to mitigating risks, we’ll ensure you’re ready for whatever February’s TSI—and the rest of 2025—brings.
Data-Driven Insights: With access to historical TSI data and real-time market intelligence, we’ll give you the edge to stay ahead of competitors.
The freight landscape is complex, but you don’t have to navigate it alone. Let Gain Consulting be your partner in transforming challenges into opportunities.
Looking Ahead: February and Beyond
The BTS will release the February 2025 Freight TSI on April 10, offering the next snapshot of freight activity. In the meantime, the December 2024 passenger and combined indexes—released alongside today’s freight data—provide a broader view. The Passenger TSI grew 1.6% from November to December, surpassing its March 2020 level for the 43rd straight month, though it remains below pre-pandemic highs.
For shippers, the interplay between freight and passenger trends could signal broader transportation capacity dynamics—especially as air freight, a shared component, adjusts to post-COVID realities. At Gain Consulting, we’ll keep you updated as these numbers unfold, ensuring you’re equipped to adapt.
Final Thoughts
January 2025’s Freight TSI tells a story of cautious progress: a slight step back from December, but a solid stride forward from last year. It’s a reminder that supply chains thrive on adaptability—and that’s where Gain Consulting shines. Whether you’re managing a dip in trucking volumes or capitalizing on pipeline growth, we’re here to help you optimize, innovate, and succeed.
Contact us today to discuss how the latest TSI data impacts your business—and how we can chart a course for a stronger 2025. With Gain Consulting by your side, you’re not just keeping up with the freight market—you’re staying ahead of it.
Stay tuned for more insights from Gain Consulting as we track the pulse of U.S. supply chains.
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