Diesel Price Trends and Implications for the Trucking Industry in 2025

Recent Diesel Price Increase

On July 15, 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 1.9-cent increase in the national average price of diesel fuel, bringing it to $3.758 per gallon, as noted in Transport Topics. This uptick follows a four-week period where diesel prices rose by a cumulative 18.7 cents, indicating a potential upward trend in fuel costs. Despite this increase, the current price remains 6.8 cents lower than the $3.826 per gallon recorded in mid-July 2024, providing some relief for the trucking industry, which depends heavily on diesel as its primary fuel source.

Factors Influencing Diesel Prices

The price of diesel is influenced by multiple factors, with crude oil costs accounting for approximately 50% of the retail price, according to the EIA’s Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update and Weekly U.S. No. 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices. Additional costs include refinery processing, marketing, distribution, and taxes, with federal excise taxes at 24.3 cents per gallon and an average state tax of 34.74 cents per gallon as of January 2024. Global oil market dynamics, such as geopolitical risks and supply constraints, also play a role, with the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (July 2025) projecting Brent crude prices at $69 per barrel in 2025 due to these factors.

Regional Price Variations

Diesel prices vary significantly across the U.S., driven by regional supply and demand, state fuel specifications, and tax structures. Historical EIA data shows the West Coast, particularly California and Hawaii, often experiences prices above $4 per gallon, while the Gulf Coast, including states like Oklahoma, sees lower prices, sometimes as low as $3.25 per gallon in June 2024. The national average of $3.758 per gallon in July 2025 masks these disparities, which can disproportionately affect carriers operating in high-cost regions, as seen in February 2022 when West Coast prices reached $4.68 per gallon.

Industry Impact and Historical Context

The trucking industry, a vital component of the U.S. economy, is highly sensitive to diesel price fluctuations, as fuel represents a significant operational expense. The recent 1.9-cent increase follows a period of relative decline in late 2024, when prices dropped to a 24-month low of $3.49 per gallon in December 2024, driven by lower crude oil prices and reduced global diesel demand, particularly in China. The recent 18.7-cent rise over four weeks suggests a potential reversal, possibly due to seasonal demand or geopolitical factors, which could increase costs for carriers and shippers.

Global and Alternative Fuel Trends

Global diesel demand is shifting, with regions like China reducing reliance on diesel through investments in high-speed rail and alternative fuels like liquefied natural gas (LNG) for heavy-duty trucks. In the U.S., the EIA projects that natural gas will power 15% of large trucks by 2040, indicating a gradual transition from diesel. Despite this, diesel remains dominant, with 4.1 million barrels of distillate fuel oil consumed daily in 2022 for road transport, agriculture, and industrial uses, making price changes like the recent increase impactful across the supply chain.

Strategic Responses for Carriers

Carriers can mitigate rising fuel costs through strategies like fuel-efficient fleet management, route optimization, and strategic fuel purchasing. Real-time price data from the EIA or platforms like OPIS helps identify cost-effective fueling locations. Investments in fuel-efficient vehicles or alternative fuels, such as LNG or electric vehicles, can further reduce exposure to diesel price volatility, especially as federal fuel economy standards improve fleet efficiency. Gain Consulting supports clients in implementing these strategies to maintain profitability.

Regulatory Challenges and the NMFC Overhaul

The NMFC overhaul, effective July 19, 2025, adds complexity for the trucking industry. Carriers like Southeastern Freight Lines are investing in dimensioners to comply with the new density-based classification system, which requires precise freight measurements. Rising diesel prices could exacerbate these challenges, increasing operational costs. Gain Consulting helps clients navigate both fuel cost fluctuations and regulatory changes, offering solutions to optimize freight classifications and reduce expenses.

Future Outlook for Diesel Prices

The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook suggests that global oil inventories will grow in 2026, potentially stabilizing or reducing diesel prices, while U.S. crude oil production is expected to decline slightly from 13.4 million barrels per day in Q2 2025 to under 13.3 million by Q4 2026. These factors, combined with geopolitical risks and seasonal demand, will shape diesel price trends. The recent increase to $3.758 per gallon highlights the need for carriers to remain vigilant and adaptable to market shifts.

Gain Consulting’s Role in Supporting the Industry

Gain Consulting is dedicated to helping the trucking industry navigate fuel price volatility and regulatory changes. Our expertise in logistics optimization, cost management, and compliance enables us to deliver tailored solutions that enhance efficiency and profitability. From analyzing diesel price trends to implementing fuel-saving technologies and ensuring NMFC compliance, we empower clients to thrive in a dynamic market. As diesel prices trend upward, Gain Consulting is your partner in driving success.

Sources: Transport Topics, “Diesel Price Nudges Up 1.9¢ to $3.758 a Gallon,” July 15, 2025; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly U.S. No. 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Retail Prices; Statista, “Monthly retail prices for diesel fuel in the United States from December 2022 to December 2024,” December 30, 2024; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2025.