DHL’s Subdued 2025 Peak Season Forecast: Strategic Opportunities for Shippers

At Gain Consulting, we’re committed to helping businesses navigate the complexities of the logistics landscape, especially during the critical Q4 peak season. A recent article by Jeff Berman in Logistics Management, published on September 26, 2025, highlights DHL Express executives’ forecast for a more subdued 2025 peak season, with global trade shifts influencing a lower-than-expected demand surge.

With DHL anticipating a 20%–25% lift in volume compared to the usual 40%–50%, shippers must adapt to a unique holiday season. Here’s what this forecast means for your business and how Gain Consulting can help you seize strategic opportunities.

DHL’s 2025 Peak Season Outlook

DHL Express, a key player in global logistics, typically sees a significant volume increase during the Q4 peak season, driven by holiday shopping and e-commerce demand. However, as noted by DHL executive Hewitt in the Logistics Management report, this year’s peak season is expected to be more restrained. Instead of the historical 40%–50% volume lift from Q3 to Q4,

DHL projects a more modest 20%–25% increase. This subdued forecast reflects broader global trade shifts, including:

• Economic Caution: Softening demand in key markets, as seen in the 8% year-over-year shipment decline reported in the August 2025 Cass Freight Index, is tempering holiday season expectations.

• Trade Lane Shifts: Declines in high-volume routes, such as the 35% drop in UPS’s China-to-U.S. trade lane (noted in September 2025), suggest reconfigured global supply chains impacting peak season dynamics.

• Cost Pressures: Rising carrier costs, including UPS’s Q4 surcharges (starting September 28, 2025) and FedEx’s 5.9%–6.9% rate hikes for 2026, are prompting shippers to prioritize efficiency.

Despite the lower volume forecast, DHL remains focused on strategic adjustments, such as optimizing capacity and leveraging data to maintain service quality. This presents an opportunity for shippers to rethink their peak season strategies.

Implications for Shippers

A subdued peak season offers both challenges and opportunities for businesses:

• Lower Volume Pressure: A 20%–25% volume lift reduces strain on capacity, potentially easing congestion at key ports like Laredo or Detroit (highlighted in July 2025 Transborder Freight Data) and lowering spot rate volatility.

• Cost Management Needs: With surcharges and rate hikes from carriers like UPS and FedEx, shippers must optimize logistics to maintain margins, especially for international shipments.

• Strategic Planning: A less intense peak season allows businesses to focus on efficiency, such as streamlining cross-border operations or adopting technologies like generative AI, which 96% of shippers are using for transportation management (per Descartes’ 2025 survey).

• Cargo Security Concerns: The DOT’s recent call for cargo theft reduction strategies (September 2025) underscores the need to protect high-value holiday shipments, particularly in high-traffic trade lanes.

How Gain Consulting Can Help

Gain Consulting specializes in turning market shifts into opportunities for businesses. Here’s how we can support you during the 2025 peak season:

• Peak Season Planning: We help you prepare for a subdued Q4 by forecasting demand, optimizing carrier selection, and aligning capacity with DHL’s projected 20%–25% volume lift, ensuring cost-effective operations.

• Cost Optimization: Our team negotiates competitive rates and explores alternatives like regional carriers (e.g., OnTrac) to mitigate the impact of UPS and FedEx surcharges, keeping your shipping costs in check.

• Technology Integration: Leveraging insights from the Descartes survey, we integrate AI-driven tools to enhance route optimization, demand forecasting, and invoice processing, boosting efficiency during the holiday rush.

• Cross-Border Expertise: With U.S.-Mexico freight up 5.2% and U.S.-Canada down 8.2% (per July 2025 BTS data), we optimize your cross-border logistics through key ports like Laredo and Detroit, ensuring timely deliveries.

• Cargo Security Solutions: We implement safeguards to protect your shipments from cargo theft, aligning with the DOT’s initiatives to strengthen supply chain security.

Seizing Opportunities in a Subdued Peak Season

DHL’s forecast for a more subdued 2025 peak season reflects broader economic and trade shifts, but it also opens the door for strategic planning. By focusing on efficiency, cost management, and security, businesses can thrive during Q4 and beyond. At Gain Consulting, we’re here to help you navigate these dynamics, ensuring your supply chain remains resilient and competitive.

As you prepare for the holiday season, let Gain Consulting guide you in optimizing your logistics strategy to capitalize on a less intense peak period while addressing rising costs and security risks.

Contact us today to learn how we can tailor solutions for your 2025 peak season success. Visit our website or reach out to our sales team for expert guidance.

Source: Logistics Management, “DHL executives forecast subdued but strategic 2025 Peak Season amid global trade shifts,” Jeff Berman, September 26, 2025.